Biblio

Realistic state-based discrete-event simulation models are often quite complex. The complexity frequently manifests in models that (a) contain a large number of input variables whose values are difficult to determine precisely, and (b) take a relatively long time to solve. Traditionally, models that have a large number of input variables whose values are not well-known are understood through the use of sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ). However, it can be prohibitively time consuming to perform SA and UQ. In this work, we present a novel approach we developed for performing fast and thorough SA and UQ on a metamodel composed of a stacked ensemble of regressors that emulates the behavior of the base model. We demonstrate the approach using a previously published botnet model as a test case, showing that the metamodel approach is several orders of magnitude faster than the base model, more accurate than existing approaches, and amenable to SA and UQ.

The assessment of networks is frequently accomplished by using time-consuming analysis tools based on simulations. For example, the blocking probability of networks can be estimated by Monte Carlo simulations and the network resilience can be assessed by link or node failure simulations. We propose in this paper to use Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to predict the robustness of networks based on simple topological metrics to avoid time-consuming failure simulations. We accomplish the training process using supervised learning based on a historical database of networks. We compare the results of our proposal with the outcome provided by targeted and random failures simulations. We show that our approach is faster than failure simulators and the ANN can mimic the same robustness evaluation provide by these simulators. We obtained an average speedup of 300 times.