Biblio

Cyber threats directly affect the critical reliability and availability of modern Industry Control Systems (ICS) in respects of operations and processes. Where there are a variety of vulnerabilities and cyber threats, it is necessary to effectively evaluate cyber security risks, and control uncertainties of cyber environments, and quantitative evaluation can be helpful. To effectively and timely control the spread and impact produced by attacks on ICS networks, a probabilistic Multi-Attribute Vulnerability Criticality Analysis (MAVCA) model for impact estimation and prioritised remediation is presented. This offer a new approach for combining three major attributes: vulnerability severities influenced by environmental factors, the attack probabilities relative to the vulnerabilities, and functional dependencies attributed to vulnerability host components. A miniature ICS testbed evaluation illustrates the usability of the model for determining the weakest link and setting security priority in the ICS. This work can help create speedy and proactive security response. The metrics derived in this work can serve as sub-metrics inputs to a larger quantitative security metrics taxonomy; and can be integrated into the security risk assessment scheme of a larger distributed system.

Given the growing sophistication of cyber attacks, designing a perfectly secure system is not generally possible. Quantitative security metrics are thus needed to measure and compare the relative security of proposed security designs and policies. Since the investigation of security breaches has shown a strong impact of human errors, ignoring the human user in computing these metrics can lead to misleading results. Despite this, and although security researchers have long observed the impact of human behavior on system security, few improvements have been made in designing systems that are resilient to the uncertainties in how humans interact with a cyber system. In this work, we develop an approach for including models of user behavior, emanating from the fields of social sciences and psychology, in the modeling of systems intended to be secure. We then illustrate how one of these models, namely general deterrence theory, can be used to study the effectiveness of the password security requirements policy and the frequency of security audits in a typical organization. Finally, we discuss the many challenges that arise when adopting such a modeling approach, and then present our recommendations for future work.