Biblio

Computing the probability of vulnerability exploitation in Bayesian attack graphs (BAGs) is a key process for the network security assessment. The conditional probability of vulnerability exploitation could be obtained from the exploitability of the NIST's Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS). However, the method which N. Poolsappasit et al. proposed for computing conditional probability could be used only in the CVSS metric version v2.0, and can't be used in other two versions. In this paper, we present two methods for computing the conditional probability based on CVSS's other two metric versions, version 1.0 and version 3.0, respectively. Based on the CVSS, the conditional probability computation of vulnerability exploitation is complete by combining the method of N. Poolsappasit et al.

Emerging zero-day vulnerabilities in information and communications technology systems make cyber defenses very challenging. In particular, the defender faces uncertainties of; e.g., system states and the locations and the impacts of vulnerabilities. In this paper, we study the defense problem on a computer network that is modeled as a partially observable Markov decision process on a Bayesian attack graph. We propose online algorithms which allow the defender to identify effective defense policies when utility functions are unknown a priori. The algorithm performance is verified via numerical simulations based on real-world attacks.