Biblio

This presents a new model to support empirical failure probability estimation for a software-intensive system. The new element of the approach is that it combines the results of testing using a simulated hardware platform with results from testing on the real platform. This approach addresses a serious practical limitation of a technique known as statistical testing. This limitation will be called the test time expansion problem (or simply the 'time problem'), which is that the amount of testing required to demonstrate useful levels of reliability over a time period T is many orders of magnitude greater than T. The time problem arises whether the aim is to demonstrate ultra-high reliability levels for protection system, or to demonstrate any (desirable) reliability levels for continuous operation ('high demand') systems. Specifically, the theoretical feasibility of a platform simulation approach is considered since, if this is not proven, questions of practical implementation are moot. Subject to the assumptions made in the paper, theoretical feasibility is demonstrated.

The reliability theory used in the design of complex systems including electric grids assumes random component failures and is thus unsuited to analyzing security risks due to attackers that intentionally damage several components of the system. In this paper, a security risk analysis methodology is proposed consisting of vulnerability analysis and impact analysis. Vulnerability analysis is a method developed by security engineers to identify the attacks that are relevant for the system under study, and in this paper, the analysis is applied on the communications network topology of the electric grid automation system. Impact analysis is then performed through co-simulation of automation and the electric grid to assess the potential damage from the attacks. This paper makes an extensive review of vulnerability and impact analysis methods and relevant system modeling techniques from the fields of security and industrial automation engineering, with a focus on smart grid automation, and then applies and combines approaches to obtain a security risk analysis methodology. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of fault location, isolation and supply restoration smart grid automation.