Biblio

With the development of technology, the invention of computers, the use of cyberspace created by information communication systems and networks, increasing the effectiveness of knowledge in all aspects and the gains it provides have increased further the importance of cyber security day by day. In parallel with the developments in cyber space, the need for cyber defense has emerged with active and passive defense approaches for cyber security against internal and external cyber-attacks of increasing type, severity and complexity. In this framework, proactive cyber defense and deterrence strategies have started to be implemented with new techniques and methods.

During the Cold War era, countries with asymmetrical relationships often demonstrated how lower-tier nation states required the alliance and support from top-tier nation states. This statement no longer stands true as country such as North Korea has exploited global financial institutions through various malware such as WANNACRY V0, V1, V2, evtsys.exe, and BRAMBUL WORM. Top tier nation states such as the U.S. are unable to use diplomatic clout or to retaliate against the deferrer. Our study examined the affidavit filed against the North Korean hacker, Park Jin Hyok, which was provided by the FBI. Our paper focuses on the operations and campaigns that were carried out by the Lazarus Group by focusing on the key factors of the infrastructure and artifacts. Due to the nature of the cyber deterrence, deterrence in the cyber realm is far complex than the nuclear deterrence. We focused on the Sony Picture Entertainment’s incident for our study. In this study, we discuss how cyber deterrence can be employed when different nation states share an asymmetrical relationship. Furthermore, we focus on contestability and attribution that is a key factor that makes cyber deterrence difficult.

This paper addresses the recent shift in the United States' policy that emphasizes forward defense and deterrence and to “intercept and halt” adversary cyber operations. Supporters believe these actions should significantly reduce attacks against the United States, while critics worry that they may incite more adversary activity. As there is no standard methodology to measure which is the case, this paper introduces a transparent framework to better assess whether the new U.S. policy and actions are suppressing or encouraging attacks1. Determining correlation and causation will be difficult due to the hidden nature of cyber attacks, the veiled motivations of differing actors, and other factors. However even if causation may never be clear, changes in the direction and magnitude of cyber attacks can be suggestive of the success or failure of these new policies, especially as their proponents suggest they should be especially effective. Rough-and-ready metrics can be helpful to assess the impacts of policymaking, can lay the groundwork for more comprehensive measurements, and may also provide insight into academic theories of persistent engagement and deterrence.

Information Technology (IT) security is a growing concern for governments around the world. Cyber terrorism poses a direct threat to the security of the nations' critical infrastructures and ITs as a low-cost asymmetric warfare element. Most of these nations are aware of the vulnerability of the information technologies and the significance of protecting critical infrastructures. To counteract the threat of potentially disastrous cyber attacks, nations' policy makers are increasingly pondering on the use of deterrence strategies to supplement cyber defense. Nations create their own national policies and strategies which cover cyber security countermeasures including cyber defense and deterrence against cyber threats. But it is rather hard to cope with the threat by means of merely `national' cyber defense policies and strategies, since the cyberspace spans worldwide and attack's origin can even be overseas. The term “cyber terrorism” is another source of controversy. An agreement on a common definition of cyber terrorism among the nations is needed. However, the international community has not been able to succeed in developing a commonly accepted comprehensive definition of “terrorism” itself. This paper evaluates the importance of building international cooperation on cyber defense and deterrence against cyber terrorism. It aims to improve and further existing contents and definitions of cyber terrorism; discusses the attractiveness of cyber attacks for terrorists and past experiences on cyber terrorism. It emphasizes establishing international legal measures and cooperation between nations against cyber terrorism in order to maintain the international stability and prosperity. In accordance with NATO's new strategic concept, it focuses on developing the member nations' ability to prevent, detect, defend against and recover from cyber attacks to enhance and coordinate national cyber defense capabilities. It provides necessary steps that have to be taken globally in order to counter cyber terrorism.

The advent of the cyber domain has introduced a new dimension into warfare and complicated existing strategic concepts, provoking divergent responses within different national contexts and strategic cultures. Although current theories regarding cyber deterrence remain relatively nascent, a comparison of U.S. and Chinese strategic thinking highlights notable asymmetries between their respective approaches. While U.S. debates on cyber deterrence have primarily focused on the deterrence of cyber threats, Chinese theorists have also emphasized the potential importance of cyber capabilities to enhance strategic deterrence. Whereas the U.S. government has maintained a consistent declaratory policy for response, Beijing has yet to progress toward transparency regarding its cyber strategy or capabilities. However, certain PLA strategists, informed by a conceptualization of deterrence as integrated with warfighting, have advocated for the actualization of deterrence through engaging in cyber attacks. Regardless of whether these major cyber powers' evolving strategic thinking on cyber deterrence will prove logically consistent or feasibly operational, their respective perspectives will certainly shape their attempts to achieve cyber deterrence. Ultimately, cyber deterrence may continue to be "what states make of it," given conditions of "cyber anarchy" and prevailing uncertainties regarding cyber conflict. Looking forward, future strategic stability in Sino-U.S. cyber interactions will require mitigation of the misperceptions and heightened risks of escalation that could be exacerbated by these divergent strategic approaches.

Deterrence is badly needed in the cyber domain but it is hard to be achieved. Why is conventional deterrence not working effectively in the cyber domain? What specific characteristics should be considered when deterrence strategies are developed in this man-made domain? These are the questions that this paper intends to address. The research conducted helps to reveal what cyber deterrence can do and what it cannot do so that focus can be put on the enhancement of what it can do. To include varied perspectives, literature review is conducted. Some research works are specifically examined. Based on these studies, this research proposes a holistic approach in cyber deterrence that is empowered by artificial intelligence and machine learning. This approach is capable of making sudden, dynamic, stealthy, and random changes initiated by different contexts. It is able to catch attackers by surprise. The surprising and changing impact inflicts a cost on attackers and makes them to re-calculate the benefits that they might gain through further attacks, thus discouraging or defeating adversaries both mentally and virtually, and eventually controlling escalation of cyber conflicts.