Biblio

This paper proposes a mathematical model for assessing the trustworthiness of the system condition prognosis. The set of mutually exclusive events at the time of predictive checking are analyzed. Correct and incorrect decisions correspond to events such as true-positive, false-positive, true-negative, and false-negative. General expressions for computing the probabilities of possible decisions when predicting the system condition at discrete times are proposed. The paper introduces the effectiveness indicators of predictive maintenance in the form of average operating costs, total error probability, and a posteriori probability of failure-free operation in the upcoming interval. We illustrate the developed approach by calculating the probabilities of correct and incorrect decisions for a specific stochastic deterioration process.

The paper describes modification of the ATA (Attack Tree Analysis) technique for assessment of instrumentation and control systems (ICS) dependability (reliability, availability and cyber security) called AvTA (Availability Tree Analysis). The techniques FMEA, FMECA and IMECA applied to carry out preliminary semi-formal and criticality oriented analysis before AvTA based assessment are described. AvTA models combine reliability and cyber security subtrees considering probabilities of ICS recovery in case of hardware (physical) and software (design) failures and attacks on components casing failures. Successful recovery events (SREs) avoid corresponding failures in tree using OR gates if probabilities of SRE for assumed time are more than required. Case for dependability AvTA based assessment (model, availability function and technology of decision-making for choice of component and system parameters) for smart building ICS (Building Automation Systems, BAS) is discussed.