Biblio

The purpose of the work is a formalized description of the method determining numerical expression of the danger from actions potentially implemented by an information security violator. The implementation of such actions may lead to a disruption of the ordered functioning of multilevel distributed automated process control systems, which indicates the importance of developing new adequate solutions for predicting attacks consequences. The analysis of the largest destructive effects on information security systems of critical objects is carried out. The most common methods of obtaining the value of the hazard quotient of information security violators' destructive actions are considered. Based on the known methods for determining the possible damage from attacks implemented by a potential information security violator, a new, previously undetected in open sources method for determining the hazard quotient of destructive actions of an information security violator has been proposed. In order to carry out experimental calculations by the proposed method, the authors developed the required software. The calculations results are presented and indicate the possibility of using the proposed method for modeling threats and information security violators when designing an information security system for automated process control systems.

The authors carry out the analysis of the process of modeling threats to information security of automated process control systems. Basic principles of security threats model formation are considered. The approach to protection of automated process control systems based on the Shtakelberg game in a strategic form was modeled. An abstract mathematical model of information security threats to automated process control systems was developed. A formalized representation of a threat model is described, taking into account an intruder's potential. Presentation of the process of applying the described threat model in the form of a continuous Deming-Shewhart cycle is proposed.

This paper provides an approach to the detection of information security breaches in automated process control systems (APCS), which consists in forecasting multivariate time series formed from the values of the operating parameters of the end system devices. Using an experimental model of water treatment, a comparison was made of the forecasting results for the parameters characterizing the operation of the entire model, and for the parameters characterizing the flow of individual subprocesses implemented by the model. For forecasting, GRU-neural network training was performed.