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Abbas, Syed Ghazanfar, Zahid, Shahzaib, Hussain, Faisal, Shah, Ghalib A., Husnain, Muhammad.  2020.  A Threat Modelling Approach to Analyze and Mitigate Botnet Attacks in Smart Home Use Case. 2020 IEEE 14th International Conference on Big Data Science and Engineering (BigDataSE). :122–129.
Despite the surging development and utilization of IoT devices, the security of IoT devices is still in infancy. The security pitfalls of IoT devices have made it easy for hackers to take over IoT devices and use them for malicious activities like botnet attacks. With the rampant emergence of IoT devices, botnet attacks are surging. The botnet attacks are not only catastrophic for IoT device users but also for the rest of the world. Therefore, there is a crucial need to identify and mitigate the possible threats in IoT devices during the design phase. Threat modelling is a technique that is used to identify the threats in the earlier stages of the system design activity. In this paper, we propose a threat modelling approach to analyze and mitigate the botnet attacks in an IoT smart home use case. The proposed methodology identifies the development-level and application-level threats in smart home use case using STRIDE and VAST threat modelling methods. Moreover, we reticulate the identified threats with botnet attacks. Finally, we propose the mitigation techniques for all identified threats including the botnet threats.
Acarali, D., Rajarajan, M., Komninos, N., Herwono, I..  2017.  Event graphs for the observation of botnet traffic. 2017 8th IEEE Annual Information Technology, Electronics and Mobile Communication Conference (IEMCON). :628–634.

Botnets are a growing threat to the security of data and services on a global level. They exploit vulnerabilities in networks and host machines to harvest sensitive information, or make use of network resources such as memory or bandwidth in cyber-crime campaigns. Bot programs by nature are largely automated and systematic, and this is often used to detect them. In this paper, we extend upon existing work in this area by proposing a network event correlation method to produce graphs of flows generated by botnets, outlining the implementation and functionality of this approach. We also show how this method can be combined with statistical flow-based analysis to provide a descriptive chain of events, and test on public datasets with an overall success rate of 94.1%.

Al-Ghushami, Abdullah, Karie, NIckson, Kebande, Victor.  2019.  Detecting Centralized Architecture-Based Botnets using Travelling Salesperson Non-Deterministic Polynomial-Hard problem-TSP-NP Technique. 2019 IEEE Conference on Application, Information and Network Security (AINS). :77—81.
The threats posed by botnets in the cyber-space continues to grow each day and it has become very hard to detect or infiltrate bots given that the botnet developers each day keep changing the propagation and attack techniques. Currently, most of these attacks have been centered on stealing computing energy, theft of personal information and Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS attacks). In this paper, the authors propose a novel technique that uses the Non-Deterministic Polynomial-Time Hardness (NP-Hard Problem) based on the Traveling Salesperson Person (TSP) that depicts that a given bot, bj, is able to visit each host on a network environment, NE, and then it returns to the botmaster in form of instruction(command) through optimal minimization of the hosts that are or may be attacked. Given that bj represents a piece of malicious code and based on TSP-NP Hard Problem which forms part of combinatorial optimization, the authors present an effective approach for the detection of the botnet. It is worth noting that the concentration of this study is basically on the centralized botnet architecture. This holistic approach shows that botnet detection accuracy can be increased with a degree of certainty and potentially decrease the chances of false positives. Nevertheless, a discussion on the possible applicability and implementation has also been given in this paper.
Alejandre, F. V., Cortés, N. C., Anaya, E. A..  2017.  Feature selection to detect botnets using machine learning algorithms. 2017 International Conference on Electronics, Communications and Computers (CONIELECOMP). :1–7.

In this paper, a novel method to do feature selection to detect botnets at their phase of Command and Control (C&C) is presented. A major problem is that researchers have proposed features based on their expertise, but there is no a method to evaluate these features since some of these features could get a lower detection rate than other. To this aim, we find the feature set based on connections of botnets at their phase of C&C, that maximizes the detection rate of these botnets. A Genetic Algorithm (GA) was used to select the set of features that gives the highest detection rate. We used the machine learning algorithm C4.5, this algorithm did the classification between connections belonging or not to a botnet. The datasets used in this paper were extracted from the repositories ISOT and ISCX. Some tests were done to get the best parameters in a GA and the algorithm C4.5. We also performed experiments in order to obtain the best set of features for each botnet analyzed (specific), and for each type of botnet (general) too. The results are shown at the end of the paper, in which a considerable reduction of features and a higher detection rate than the related work presented were obtained.

ALEKSIEVA, Yulia, VALCHANOV, Hristo, ALEKSIEVA, Veneta.  2019.  An approach for host based botnet detection system. 2019 16th Conference on Electrical Machines, Drives and Power Systems (ELMA). :1—4.
Most serious occurrence of modern malware is Botnet. Botnet is a rapidly evolving problem that is still not well understood and studied. One of the main goals for modern network security is to create adequate techniques for the detection and eventual termination of Botnet threats. The article presents an approach for implementing a host-based Intrusion Detection System for Botnet attack detection. The approach is based on a variation of a genetic algorithm to detect anomalies in a case of attacks. An implementation of the approach and experimental results are presented.
Alomari, E., Manickam, S., Gupta, B.B., Singh, P., Anbar, M..  2014.  Design, deployment and use of HTTP-based botnet (HBB) testbed. Advanced Communication Technology (ICACT), 2014 16th International Conference on. :1265-1269.

Botnet is one of the most widespread and serious malware which occur frequently in today's cyber attacks. A botnet is a group of Internet-connected computer programs communicating with other similar programs in order to perform various attacks. HTTP-based botnet is most dangerous botnet among all the different botnets available today. In botnets detection, in particularly, behavioural-based approaches suffer from the unavailability of the benchmark datasets and this lead to lack of precise results evaluation of botnet detection systems, comparison, and deployment which originates from the deficiency of adequate datasets. Most of the datasets in the botnet field are from local environment and cannot be used in the large scale due to privacy problems and do not reflect common trends, and also lack some statistical features. To the best of our knowledge, there is not any benchmark dataset available which is infected by HTTP-based botnet (HBB) for performing Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks against Web servers by using HTTP-GET flooding method. In addition, there is no Web access log infected by botnet is available for researchers. Therefore, in this paper, a complete test-bed will be illustrated in order to implement a real time HTTP-based botnet for performing variety of DDoS attacks against Web servers by using HTTP-GET flooding method. In addition to this, Web access log with http bot traces are also generated. These real time datasets and Web access logs can be useful to study the behaviour of HTTP-based botnet as well as to evaluate different solutions proposed to detect HTTP-based botnet by various researchers.
 

Ashiq, Md. Ishtiaq, Bhowmick, Protick, Hossain, Md. Shohrab, Narman, Husnu S..  2019.  Domain Flux-based DGA Botnet Detection Using Feedforward Neural Network. MILCOM 2019 - 2019 IEEE Military Communications Conference (MILCOM). :1—6.
Botnets have been a major area of concern in the field of cybersecurity. There have been a lot of research works for detection of botnets. However, everyday cybercriminals are coming up with new ideas to counter the well-known detection methods. One such popular method is domain flux-based botnets in which a large number of domain names are produced using domain generation algorithm. In this paper, we have proposed a robust way of detecting DGA-based botnets using few novel features covering both syntactic and semantic viewpoints. We have used Area under ROC curve as our performance metric since it provides comprehensive information about the performance of binary classifiers at various thresholds. Results show that our approach performs significantly better than the baseline approach. Our proposed method can help in detecting established DGA bots (equipped with extensive features) as well as prospective advanced DGA bots imitating real-world domain names.
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Baden, Mathis, Ferreira Torres, Christof, Fiz Pontiveros, Beltran Borja, State, Radu.  2019.  Whispering Botnet Command and Control Instructions. 2019 Crypto Valley Conference on Blockchain Technology (CVCBT). :77—81.
Botnets are responsible for many large scale attacks happening on the Internet. Their weak point, which is usually targeted to take down a botnet, is the command and control infrastructure: the foundation for the diffusion of the botmaster's instructions. Hence, botmasters employ stealthy communication methods to remain hidden and retain control of the botnet. Recent research has shown that blockchains can be leveraged for under the radar communication with bots, however these methods incur fees for transaction broadcasting. This paper discusses the use of a novel technology, Whisper, for command and control instruction dissemination. Whisper allows a botmaster to control bots at virtually zero cost, while providing a peer-to-peer communication infrastructure, as well as privacy and encryption as part of its dark communication strategy. It is therefore well suited for bidirectional botnet command and control operations, and creating a botnet that is very difficult to take down.
Bapat, R., Mandya, A., Liu, X., Abraham, B., Brown, D. E., Kang, H., Veeraraghavan, M..  2018.  Identifying Malicious Botnet Traffic Using Logistic Regression. 2018 Systems and Information Engineering Design Symposium (SIEDS). :266-271.

An important source of cyber-attacks is malware, which proliferates in different forms such as botnets. The botnet malware typically looks for vulnerable devices across the Internet, rather than targeting specific individuals, companies or industries. It attempts to infect as many connected devices as possible, using their resources for automated tasks that may cause significant economic and social harm while being hidden to the user and device. Thus, it becomes very difficult to detect such activity. A considerable amount of research has been conducted to detect and prevent botnet infestation. In this paper, we attempt to create a foundation for an anomaly-based intrusion detection system using a statistical learning method to improve network security and reduce human involvement in botnet detection. We focus on identifying the best features to detect botnet activity within network traffic using a lightweight logistic regression model. The network traffic is processed by Bro, a popular network monitoring framework which provides aggregate statistics about the packets exchanged between a source and destination over a certain time interval. These statistics serve as features to a logistic regression model responsible for classifying malicious and benign traffic. Our model is easy to implement and simple to interpret. We characterized and modeled 8 different botnet families separately and as a mixed dataset. Finally, we measured the performance of our model on multiple parameters using F1 score, accuracy and Area Under Curve (AUC).

Barakat, Ghena, Al-Duwairi, Basheer, Jarrah, Moath, Jaradat, Manar.  2022.  Modeling and Simulation of IoT Botnet Behaviors Using DEVS. 2022 13th International Conference on Information and Communication Systems (ICICS). :42–47.
The ubiquitous nature of the Internet of Things (IoT) devices and their wide-scale deployment have remarkably attracted hackers to exploit weakly-configured and vulnerable devices, allowing them to form large IoT botnets and launch unprecedented attacks. Modeling the behavior of IoT botnets leads to a better understanding of their spreading mechanisms and the state of the network at different levels of the attack. In this paper, we propose a generic model to capture the behavior of IoT botnets. The proposed model uses Markov Chains to study the botnet behavior. Discrete Event System Specifications environment is used to simulate the proposed model.
ISSN: 2573-3346
Baumann, Lukas, Heftrig, Elias, Shulman, Haya, Waidner, Michael.  2021.  The Master and Parasite Attack. 2021 51st Annual IEEE/IFIP International Conference on Dependable Systems and Networks (DSN). :141—148.
We explore a new type of malicious script attacks: the persistent parasite attack. Persistent parasites are stealthy scripts, which persist for a long time in the browser's cache. We show to infect the caches of victims with parasite scripts via TCP injection. Once the cache is infected, we implement methodologies for propagation of the parasites to other popular domains on the victim client as well as to other caches on the network. We show how to design the parasites so that they stay long time in the victim's cache not restricted to the duration of the user's visit to the web site. We develop covert channels for communication between the attacker and the parasites, which allows the attacker to control which scripts are executed and when, and to exfiltrate private information to the attacker, such as cookies and passwords. We then demonstrate how to leverage the parasites to perform sophisticated attacks, and evaluate the attacks against a range of applications and security mechanisms on popular browsers. Finally we provide recommendations for countermeasures.
Bhati, Akhilesh, Bouras, Abdelaziz, Ahmed Qidwai, Uvais, Belhi, Abdelhak.  2020.  Deep Learning Based Identification of DDoS Attacks in Industrial Application. 2020 Fourth World Conference on Smart Trends in Systems, Security and Sustainability (WorldS4). :190–196.
Denial of Service (DoS) attacks are very common type of computer attack in the world of internet today. Automatically detecting such type of DDoS attack packets & dropping them before passing through is the best prevention method. Conventional solution only monitors and provide the feedforward solution instead of the feedback machine-based learning. A Design of Deep neural network has been suggested in this paper. In this approach, high level features are extracted for representation and inference of the dataset. Experiment has been conducted based on the ISCX dataset for year 2017, 2018 and CICDDoS2019 and program has been developed in Matlab R17b using Wireshark.
Borys, Adam, Kamruzzaman, Abu, Thakur, Hasnain Nizam, Brickley, Joseph C., Ali, Md L., Thakur, Kutub.  2022.  An Evaluation of IoT DDoS Cryptojacking Malware and Mirai Botnet. 2022 IEEE World AI IoT Congress (AIIoT). :725–729.
This paper dives into the growing world of IoT botnets that have taken the world by storm in the past five years. Though alone an IP camera cannot produce enough traffic to be considered a DDoS. But a botnet that has over 150,000 connected IP cameras can generate as much as 1 Tbps in traffic. Botnets catch many by surprise because their attacks and infections may not be as apparent as a DDoS, some other cases include using these cameras and printers for extracting information or quietly mine cryptocurrency at the IoT device owner's expense. Here we analyze damages on IoT hacking and define botnet architecture. An overview of Mirai botnet and cryptojacking provided to better understand the IoT botnets.
Bottazzi, G., Italiano, G. F..  2015.  Fast Mining of Large-Scale Logs for Botnet Detection: A Field Study. 2015 IEEE International Conference on Computer and Information Technology; Ubiquitous Computing and Communications; Dependable, Autonomic and Secure Computing; Pervasive Intelligence and Computing. :1989–1996.

Botnets are considered one of the most dangerous species of network-based attack today because they involve the use of very large coordinated groups of hosts simultaneously. The behavioral analysis of computer networks is at the basis of the modern botnet detection methods, in order to intercept traffic generated by malwares for which signatures do not exist yet. Defining a pattern of features to be placed at the basis of behavioral analysis, puts the emphasis on the quantity and quality of information to be caught and used to mark data streams as normal or abnormal. The problem is even more evident if we consider extensive computer networks or clouds. With the present paper we intend to show how heuristics applied to large-scale proxy logs, considering a typical phase of the life cycle of botnets such as the search for C&C Servers through AGDs (Algorithmically Generated Domains), may provide effective and extremely rapid results. The present work will introduce some novel paradigms. The first is that some of the elements of the supply chain of botnets could be completed without any interaction with the Internet, mostly in presence of wide computer networks and/or clouds. The second is that behind a large number of workstations there are usually "human beings" and it is unlikely that their behaviors will cause marked changes in the interaction with the Internet in a fairly narrow time frame. Finally, AGDs can highlight, at the moment, common lexical features, detectable quickly and without using any black/white list.

Bottazzi, Giovanni, Italiano, Giuseppe F., Rutigliano, Giuseppe G..  2016.  Frequency Domain Analysis of Large-Scale Proxy Logs for Botnet Traffic Detection. Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Security of Information and Networks. :76–80.

Botnets have become one of the most significant cyber threats over the last decade. The diffusion of the "Internet of Things" and its for-profit exploitation, contributed to botnets spread and sophistication, thus providing real, efficient and profitable criminal cyber-services. Recent research on botnet detection focuses on traffic pattern-based detection, and on analyzing the network traffic generated by the infected hosts, in order to find behavioral patterns independent from the specific payloads, architectures and protocols. In this paper we address the periodic behavioral patterns of infected hosts communicating with their Command-and-Control servers. The main novelty introduced is related to the traffic analysis in the frequency domain without using the well-known Fast Fourier Transform. Moreover, the mentioned analysis is performed through the exploitation of the proxy logs, easily deployable on almost every real-world scenario, from enterprise networks to mobile devices.

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Carter, K.M., Idika, N., Streilein, W.W..  2014.  Probabilistic Threat Propagation for Network Security. Information Forensics and Security, IEEE Transactions on. 9:1394-1405.

Techniques for network security analysis have historically focused on the actions of the network hosts. Outside of forensic analysis, little has been done to detect or predict malicious or infected nodes strictly based on their association with other known malicious nodes. This methodology is highly prevalent in the graph analytics world, however, and is referred to as community detection. In this paper, we present a method for detecting malicious and infected nodes on both monitored networks and the external Internet. We leverage prior community detection and graphical modeling work by propagating threat probabilities across network nodes, given an initial set of known malicious nodes. We enhance prior work by employing constraints that remove the adverse effect of cyclic propagation that is a byproduct of current methods. We demonstrate the effectiveness of probabilistic threat propagation on the tasks of detecting botnets and malicious web destinations.

Chavan, Neeta, Kukreja, Mohit, Jagwani, Gaurav, Nishad, Neha, Deb, Namrata.  2022.  DDoS Attack Detection and Botnet Prevention using Machine Learning. 2022 8th International Conference on Advanced Computing and Communication Systems (ICACCS). 1:1159–1163.
One of the major threats in the cyber security and networking world is a Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack. With massive development in Science and Technology, the privacy and security of various organizations are concerned. Computer Intrusion and DDoS attacks have always been a significant issue in networked environments. DDoS attacks result in non-availability of services to the end-users. It interrupts regular traffic flow and causes a flood of flooded packets, causing the system to crash. This research presents a Machine Learning-based DDoS attack detection system to overcome this challenge. For the training and testing purpose, we have used the NSL-KDD Dataset. Logistic Regression Classifier, Support Vector Machine, K Nearest Neighbour, and Decision Tree Classifier are examples of machine learning algorithms which we have used to train our model. The accuracy gained are 90.4, 90.36, 89.15 and 82.28 respectively. We have added a feature called BOTNET Prevention, which scans for Phishing URLs and prevents a healthy device from being a part of the botnet.
ISSN: 2575-7288
Chen, S., Chen, Y., Tzeng, W..  2018.  Effective Botnet Detection Through Neural Networks on Convolutional Features. 2018 17th IEEE International Conference On Trust, Security And Privacy In Computing And Communications/ 12th IEEE International Conference On Big Data Science And Engineering (TrustCom/BigDataSE). :372-378.

Botnet is one of the major threats on the Internet for committing cybercrimes, such as DDoS attacks, stealing sensitive information, spreading spams, etc. It is a challenging issue to detect modern botnets that are continuously improving for evading detection. In this paper, we propose a machine learning based botnet detection system that is shown to be effective in identifying P2P botnets. Our approach extracts convolutional version of effective flow-based features, and trains a classification model by using a feed-forward artificial neural network. The experimental results show that the accuracy of detection using the convolutional features is better than the ones using the traditional features. It can achieve 94.7% of detection accuracy and 2.2% of false positive rate on the known P2P botnet datasets. Furthermore, our system provides an additional confidence testing for enhancing performance of botnet detection. It further classifies the network traffic of insufficient confidence in the neural network. The experiment shows that this stage can increase the detection accuracy up to 98.6% and decrease the false positive rate up to 0.5%.

Chugunkov, Ilya V., Fedorov, Leonid O., Achmiz, Bela Sh., Sayfullina, Zarina R..  2018.  Development of the Algorithm for Protection against DDoS-Attacks of Type Pulse Wave. 2018 IEEE Conference of Russian Young Researchers in Electrical and Electronic Engineering (EIConRus). :292-294.

Protection from DDoS-attacks is one of the most urgent problems in the world of network technologies. And while protect systems has algorithms for detection and preventing DDoS attacks, there are still some unresolved problems. This article is devoted to the DDoS-attack called Pulse Wave. Providing a brief introduction to the world of network technologies and DDoS-attacks, in particular, aims at the algorithm for protecting against DDoS-attack Pulse Wave. The main goal of this article is the implementation of traffic classifier that adds rules for infected computers to put them into a separate queue with limited bandwidth. This approach reduces their load on the service and, thus, firewall neutralises the attack.

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Dainotti, A., King, A., Claffy, K., Papale, F., Pescape, A..  2015.  Analysis of a #x201c;/0 #x201d; Stealth Scan From a Botnet. Networking, IEEE/ACM Transactions on. 23:341-354.

Botnets are the most common vehicle of cyber-criminal activity. They are used for spamming, phishing, denial-of-service attacks, brute-force cracking, stealing private information, and cyber warfare. Botnets carry out network scans for several reasons, including searching for vulnerable machines to infect and recruit into the botnet, probing networks for enumeration or penetration, etc. We present the measurement and analysis of a horizontal scan of the entire IPv4 address space conducted by the Sality botnet in February 2011. This 12-day scan originated from approximately 3 million distinct IP addresses and used a heavily coordinated and unusually covert scanning strategy to try to discover and compromise VoIP-related (SIP server) infrastructure. We observed this event through the UCSD Network Telescope, a /8 darknet continuously receiving large amounts of unsolicited traffic, and we correlate this traffic data with other public sources of data to validate our inferences. Sality is one of the largest botnets ever identified by researchers. Its behavior represents ominous advances in the evolution of modern malware: the use of more sophisticated stealth scanning strategies by millions of coordinated bots, targeting critical voice communications infrastructure. This paper offers a detailed dissection of the botnet's scanning behavior, including general methods to correlate, visualize, and extrapolate botnet behavior across the global Internet.
 

Dong, X., Hu, J., Cui, Y..  2018.  Overview of Botnet Detection Based on Machine Learning. 2018 3rd International Conference on Mechanical, Control and Computer Engineering (ICMCCE). :476-479.

With the rapid development of the information industry, the applications of Internet of things, cloud computing and artificial intelligence have greatly affected people's life, and the network equipment has increased with a blowout type. At the same time, more complex network environment has also led to a more serious network security problem. The traditional security solution becomes inefficient in the new situation. Therefore, it is an important task for the security industry to seek technical progress and improve the protection detection and protection ability of the security industry. Botnets have been one of the most important issues in many network security problems, especially in the last one or two years, and China has become one of the most endangered countries by botnets, thus the huge impact of botnets in the world has caused its detection problems to reset people's attention. This paper, based on the topic of botnet detection, focuses on the latest research achievements of botnet detection based on machine learning technology. Firstly, it expounds the application process of machine learning technology in the research of network space security, introduces the structure characteristics of botnet, and then introduces the machine learning in botnet detection. The security features of these solutions and the commonly used machine learning algorithms are emphatically analyzed and summarized. Finally, it summarizes the existing problems in the existing solutions, and the future development direction and challenges of machine learning technology in the research of network space security.

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Eskandari, S., Leoutsarakos, A., Mursch, T., Clark, J..  2018.  A First Look at Browser-Based Cryptojacking. 2018 IEEE European Symposium on Security and Privacy Workshops (EuroS PW). :58–66.

In this paper, we examine the recent trend to- wards in-browser mining of cryptocurrencies; in particular, the mining of Monero through Coinhive and similar code- bases. In this model, a user visiting a website will download a JavaScript code that executes client-side in her browser, mines a cryptocurrency - typically without her consent or knowledge - and pays out the seigniorage to the website. Websites may consciously employ this as an alternative or to supplement advertisement revenue, may offer premium content in exchange for mining, or may be unwittingly serving the code as a result of a breach (in which case the seigniorage is collected by the attacker). The cryptocurrency Monero is preferred seemingly for its unfriendliness to large-scale ASIC mining that would drive browser-based efforts out of the market, as well as for its purported privacy features. In this paper, we survey this landscape, conduct some measurements to establish its prevalence and profitability, outline an ethical framework for considering whether it should be classified as an attack or business opportunity, and make suggestions for the detection, mitigation and/or prevention of browser-based mining for non- consenting users.

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Faghihi, Farnood, Abadi, Mahdi, Tajoddin, Asghar.  2018.  SMSBotHunter: A Novel Anomaly Detection Technique to Detect SMS Botnets. 2018 15th International ISC (Iranian Society of Cryptology) Conference on Information Security and Cryptology (ISCISC). :1–6.
Over the past few years, botnets have emerged as one of the most serious cybersecurity threats faced by individuals and organizations. After infecting millions of servers and workstations worldwide, botmasters have started to develop botnets for mobile devices. Mobile botnets use different mediums to communicate with their botmasters. Although significant research has been done to detect mobile botnets that use the Internet as their command and control (C&C) channel, little research has investigated SMS botnets per se. In order to fill this gap, in this paper, we first divide SMS botnets based on their characteristics into three families, namely, info stealer, SMS stealer, and SMS spammer. Then, we propose SMSBotHunter, a novel anomaly detection technique that detects SMS botnets using textual and behavioral features and one-class classification. We experimentally evaluate the detection performance of SMSBotHunter by simulating the behavior of human users and SMS botnets. The experimental results demonstrate that most of the SMS messages sent or received by info stealer and SMS spammer botnets can be detected using textual features exclusively. It is also revealed that behavioral features are crucial for the detection of SMS stealer botnets and will improve the overall detection performance.
Ferragut, Erik M., Brady, Andrew C., Brady, Ethan J., Ferragut, Jacob M., Ferragut, Nathan M., Wildgruber, Max C..  2016.  HackAttack: Game-Theoretic Analysis of Realistic Cyber Conflicts. Proceedings of the 11th Annual Cyber and Information Security Research Conference. :8:1–8:8.

Game theory is appropriate for studying cyber conflict because it allows for an intelligent and goal-driven adversary. Applications of game theory have led to a number of results regarding optimal attack and defense strategies. However, the overwhelming majority of applications explore overly simplistic games, often ones in which each participant's actions are visible to every other participant. These simplifications strip away the fundamental properties of real cyber conflicts: probabilistic alerting, hidden actions, unknown opponent capabilities. In this paper, we demonstrate that it is possible to analyze a more realistic game, one in which different resources have different weaknesses, players have different exploits, and moves occur in secrecy, but they can be detected. Certainly, more advanced and complex games are possible, but the game presented here is more realistic than any other game we know of in the scientific literature. While optimal strategies can be found for simpler games using calculus, case-by-case analysis, or, for stochastic games, Q-learning, our more complex game is more naturally analyzed using the same methods used to study other complex games, such as checkers and chess. We define a simple evaluation function and employ multi-step searches to create strategies. We show that such scenarios can be analyzed, and find that in cases of extreme uncertainty, it is often better to ignore one's opponent's possible moves. Furthermore, we show that a simple evaluation function in a complex game can lead to interesting and nuanced strategies that follow tactics that tend to select moves that are well tuned to the details of the situation and the relative probabilities of success.

Ferragut, Erik M., Brady, Andrew C., Brady, Ethan J., Ferragut, Jacob M., Ferragut, Nathan M., Wildgruber, Max C..  2016.  HackAttack: Game-Theoretic Analysis of Realistic Cyber Conflicts. Proceedings of the 11th Annual Cyber and Information Security Research Conference. :8:1–8:8.

Game theory is appropriate for studying cyber conflict because it allows for an intelligent and goal-driven adversary. Applications of game theory have led to a number of results regarding optimal attack and defense strategies. However, the overwhelming majority of applications explore overly simplistic games, often ones in which each participant's actions are visible to every other participant. These simplifications strip away the fundamental properties of real cyber conflicts: probabilistic alerting, hidden actions, unknown opponent capabilities. In this paper, we demonstrate that it is possible to analyze a more realistic game, one in which different resources have different weaknesses, players have different exploits, and moves occur in secrecy, but they can be detected. Certainly, more advanced and complex games are possible, but the game presented here is more realistic than any other game we know of in the scientific literature. While optimal strategies can be found for simpler games using calculus, case-by-case analysis, or, for stochastic games, Q-learning, our more complex game is more naturally analyzed using the same methods used to study other complex games, such as checkers and chess. We define a simple evaluation function and employ multi-step searches to create strategies. We show that such scenarios can be analyzed, and find that in cases of extreme uncertainty, it is often better to ignore one's opponent's possible moves. Furthermore, we show that a simple evaluation function in a complex game can lead to interesting and nuanced strategies that follow tactics that tend to select moves that are well tuned to the details of the situation and the relative probabilities of success.