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Ignorance
how it drives science

Stuart
 Firestein Columbia
 University New
 York,
 NY
http://ignorance.biology.columbia.edu/
Saturday, December 1, 12

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It’s very difficult to find a black cat in a dark room.

Saturday, December 1, 12

It’s very difficult to find a black cat in a dark room.

Especially when there is no cat

Saturday, December 1, 12

The
 Scienti*ic
 Method

Saturday, December 1, 12

The
 Scienti*ic
 Method vs. Farting
 Around

Saturday, December 1, 12

The
 Scienti*ic
 Method vs. Farting
 Around
...in
 the
 dark

Saturday, December 1, 12

Cellular
 and
 Molecular
 Neuroscience
 -­‐
 I

Saturday, December 1, 12

Saturday, December 1, 12

Saturday, December 1, 12

Hardcover: 1414 pages Publisher: McGraw-Hill Medical; 4th edition Product Dimensions: 10.9 x 9 x 2.3 inches Shipping Weight: 7.6 pounds

Saturday, December 1, 12

Hardcover: 1414 pages Publisher: McGraw-Hill Medical; 4th edition Product Dimensions: 10.9 x 9 x 2.3 inches Shipping Weight: 7.6 pounds

Saturday, December 1, 12

Hardcover: 1414 pages Publisher: McGraw-Hill Medical; 4th edition Product Dimensions: 10.9 x 9 x 2.3 inches Shipping Weight: 7.6 pounds

Saturday, December 1, 12

Hardcover: 1414 pages Publisher: McGraw-Hill Medical; 4th edition Product Dimensions: 10.9 x 9 x 2.3 inches Shipping Weight: 7.6 pounds

Saturday, December 1, 12

Hardcover: 1414 pages Publisher: McGraw-Hill Medical; 4th edition Product Dimensions: 10.9 x 9 x 2.3 inches Shipping Weight: 7.6 pounds

Saturday, December 1, 12

Hardcover: 1414 pages Publisher: McGraw-Hill Medical; 4th edition Product Dimensions: 10.9 x 9 x 2.3 inches Shipping Weight: 7.6 pounds

Saturday, December 1, 12

Marie Curie 1867-1934
“One never notices what has been done; one can only see what remains to be done…”
Saturday, December 1, 12

James Clerk Maxwell, 1831 -1879

Saturday, December 1, 12

Thoroughly conscious ignorance is the prelude to every real advance in science

James Clerk Maxwell, 1831 -1879

Saturday, December 1, 12

Knowledge is a big subject 5 exabytes = 5 x 1018

Saturday, December 1, 12

Knowledge is a big subject 5 exabytes = 5 x 1018
5,000,000,000,000,000,000

Saturday, December 1, 12

Knowledge is a big subject 5 exabytes = 5 x 1018
5,000,000,000,000,000,000

2500 exabytes by 2012
Saturday, December 1, 12

Saturday, December 1, 12

Growth of the Scientific Literature

Saturday, December 1, 12

Growth of the Scientific Literature
2006: 1.35 x 106 scientific journal articles published

Saturday, December 1, 12

Growth of the Scientific Literature
2006: 1.35 x 106 scientific journal articles published 2.5% yearly growth

Saturday, December 1, 12

Growth of the Scientific Literature
2006: 1.35 x 106 scientific journal articles published 2.5% yearly growth 2012: 1.57 x 106 scientific journal articles published

Saturday, December 1, 12

Growth of the Scientific Literature
2006: 1.35 x 106 scientific journal articles published 2.5% yearly growth 2012: 1.57 x 106 scientific journal articles published 535,600 minutes per year

Saturday, December 1, 12

Growth of the Scientific Literature
2006: 1.35 x 106 scientific journal articles published 2.5% yearly growth 2012: 1.57 x 106 scientific journal articles published 535,600 minutes per year

3 new papers per minute
Saturday, December 1, 12

Neglect

Saturday, December 1, 12

Knowledge is a big subject

Saturday, December 1, 12

Knowledge is a big subject

Ignorance is a bigger one
Saturday, December 1, 12

Saturday, December 1, 12

Ignorance

SCNC
 3490,
 
 
 
 
 Instructor:
 Firestein Spring,
 
 Tuesdays
 6-­‐8PM
 
 
 
 
 
 2units
 
A
 discussion
 of
 the
 10
 role
 of
 ignorance
 in
 science A
 series
 of
 case
 histories
 in
 scienti*ic
 ignorance
http://ignorance.biology.columbia.edu/

Saturday, December 1, 12

Saturday, December 1, 12

Saturday, December 1, 12

Saturday, December 1, 12

Saturday, December 1, 12

“Science is always wrong. It never solves a problem without creating 10 more.”

George Bernard Shaw 1856 -1950

Saturday, December 1, 12

“Science is always wrong. It never solves a problem without creating 10 more.”

George Bernard Shaw 1856 -1950 Immanuel Kant 1724 -1804
The Principle of Question Propagation “Every answer given on principle of experience begets a fresh question”
Saturday, December 1, 12

IGNORANCE
 

KNOWLEDGE

Saturday, December 1, 12

KNOWLEDGE

IGNORANCE
 

Saturday, December 1, 12

KNOWLEDGE

IGNORANCE
 

Saturday, December 1, 12

“There
 are
 known
 unknowns
 …
 and
 unknown
 unknowns.”
 
  We
 also
 know
 there
 are
 known
 unknowns;
 that
 is
 to
 say
  we
 know
 there
 are
 some
 things
 we
 do
 not
 know.
 

Saturday, December 1, 12

“There
 are
 known
 unknowns
 …
 and
 unknown
 unknowns.”
 
  We
 also
 know
 there
 are
 known
 unknowns;
 that
 is
 to
 say
  we
 know
 there
 are
 some
 things
 we
 do
 not
 know.
  But
 there
 are
 also
 unknown
 unknowns
 -­‐-­‐
 the
 ones
 we
 don't
 know
 we
 don't
 know.”
 
Saturday, December 1, 12


 

-­‐
 Donald
 Rumsfeld
 (2006)

Not only is the universe stranger than we imagine, it is stranger than we can imagine. -JBS Haldane (1928)
Saturday, December 1, 12

Cognitive
 Copernicanism
Nicholas
 Rescher

Saturday, December 1, 12

Cognitive
 Copernicanism
Nicholas
 Rescher

L. Wittgenstein 1889-1951

Saturday, December 1, 12

Cognitive
 Copernicanism
Nicholas
 Rescher

L. Wittgenstein 1889-1951

Saturday, December 1, 12

Cognitive
 Copernicanism
Nicholas
 Rescher

Nicolai Copernicus 1473-1543 De revolutionibus
Saturday, December 1, 12

L. Wittgenstein 1889-1951

Foucault’s
 Pendulum,
 Pantheon,
 Paris

Saturday, December 1, 12

Kinds
 of
 Ignorance

Saturday, December 1, 12

Kinds
 of
 Ignorance

•Little
 vs.
 Big
 Questions

Saturday, December 1, 12

Kinds
 of
 Ignorance

•Little
 vs.
 Big
 Questions •Tractability
 -­‐
 The
 Art
 of
 the
 Soluble

Saturday, December 1, 12

Kinds
 of
 Ignorance

•Little
 vs.
 Big
 Questions •Tractability
 -­‐
 The
 Art
 of
 the
 Soluble •DifUiculty,
 obstinance
 of
 the
 problem

Saturday, December 1, 12

Kinds
 of
 Ignorance

•Little
 vs.
 Big
 Questions •Tractability
 -­‐
 The
 Art
 of
 the
 Soluble •DifUiculty,
 obstinance
 of
 the
 problem •Technical
 requirements

Saturday, December 1, 12

Kinds
 of
 Ignorance

•Little
 vs.
 Big
 Questions •Tractability
 -­‐
 The
 Art
 of
 the
 Soluble •DifUiculty,
 obstinance
 of
 the
 problem •Technical
 requirements •Resources
 -­‐
 money,
 people

Saturday, December 1, 12

Kinds
 of
 Ignorance

•Little
 vs.
 Big
 Questions •Tractability
 -­‐
 The
 Art
 of
 the
 Soluble •DifUiculty,
 obstinance
 of
 the
 problem •Technical
 requirements •Resources
 -­‐
 money,
 people •Community.
 
 The
 Field.

Saturday, December 1, 12

Kinds
 of
 Ignorance

•Little
 vs.
 Big
 Questions •Tractability
 -­‐
 The
 Art
 of
 the
 Soluble •DifUiculty,
 obstinance
 of
 the
 problem •Technical
 requirements •Resources
 -­‐
 money,
 people •Community.
 
 The
 Field. •Ethical
 and
 moral
 considerations
Saturday, December 1, 12

Kinds
 of
 Ignorance

•Little
 vs.
 Big
 Questions •Tractability
 -­‐
 The
 Art
 of
 the
 Soluble •DifUiculty,
 obstinance
 of
 the
 problem •Technical
 requirements •Resources
 -­‐
 money,
 people •Community.
 
 The
 Field. •Ethical
 and
 moral
 considerations •Timing.
 
 “Lifetime
 problems”
Saturday, December 1, 12

Kinds
 of
 Ignorance

•Little
 vs.
 Big
 Questions •Tractability
 -­‐
 The
 Art
 of
 the
 Soluble •DifUiculty,
 obstinance
 of
 the
 problem •Technical
 requirements •Resources
 -­‐
 money,
 people •Community.
 
 The
 Field. •Ethical
 and
 moral
 considerations •Timing.
 
 “Lifetime
 problems” •Ignorance
 of
 the
 Known
Saturday, December 1, 12

Science
 is
 the
 Search
 for
  Better
 Ignorance

Saturday, December 1, 12

Science
 is
 the
 Search
 for
  Better
 Ignorance
Negative
 Capability,
 that
 is
 when
 a
 man
 is
 capable
  of
 being
 in
 uncertainties,
 Mysteries,
 doubts
  (without
 any
 irritable
 reaching
 after
 fact
 &
  reason...) -­‐John
 Keats,
 1817

Saturday, December 1, 12

Science
 is
 the
 Search
 for
  Better
 Ignorance
Negative
 Capability,
 that
 is
 when
 a
 man
 is
 capable
  of
 being
 in
 uncertainties,
 Mysteries,
 doubts
  (without
 any
 irritable
 reaching
 after
 fact
 &
  reason...) -­‐John
 Keats,
 1817 In
 an
 honest
 search
 for
 knowledge
 you
 quite
  often
 have
 to
 abide
 by
 ignorance
 for
 an
 inde*inite
  period.
  -­‐Erwin
 Schrodinger,
 
 1948
Saturday, December 1, 12

ScientiUic
 progress
 generates
 

Ignorance ........................................

Saturday, December 1, 12

ScientiUic
 progress
 generates
 

Ignorance ........................................
Does
 Ignorance
 
 
 =
 
 
 Uncertainty ?

Saturday, December 1, 12

ScientiUic
 progress
 generates
 

Ignorance ........................................
Does
 Ignorance
 
 
 =
 
 
 Uncertainty ? Does
 Uncertainty
 =
 Doubt ?

Saturday, December 1, 12

ScientiUic
 progress
 generates
 

Ignorance ........................................
Does
 Ignorance
 
 
 =
 
 
 Uncertainty ? Does
 Uncertainty
 =
 Doubt ? Does
 Science
 create
 Uncertainty
 &
 Doubt ?

Saturday, December 1, 12

ScientiUic
 progress
 generates
 

Ignorance ........................................
Does
 Ignorance
 
 
 =
 
 
 Uncertainty ? Does
 Uncertainty
 =
 Doubt ? Does
 Science
 create
 Uncertainty
 &
 Doubt ?

YES
..................................................................................

Saturday, December 1, 12

ScientiUic
 progress
 generates
 

Ignorance ........................................
Does
 Ignorance
 
 
 =
 
 
 Uncertainty ? Does
 Uncertainty
 =
 Doubt ? Does
 Science
 create
 Uncertainty
 &
 Doubt ?

YES
..................................................................................

but
  Uncertainty
 ≉
 Unreliability
Saturday, December 1, 12

ScientiUic
 progress
 generates
 

Ignorance ........................................
Does
 Ignorance
 
 
 =
 
 
 Uncertainty ? Does
 Uncertainty
 =
 Doubt ? Does
 Science
 create
 Uncertainty
 &
 Doubt ?

YES
..................................................................................

but
  Uncertainty
 ≉
 Unreliability Unsettled
 Science
 is
 not
 Unsound
 
 Science
Saturday, December 1, 12

A
 Perspective
 on
 the
 Weather

Saturday, December 1, 12

A
 Perspective
 on
 the
 Weather
VE TI I IM PR

Saturday, December 1, 12

SC

IE NT

IF IC

A
 Perspective
 on
 the
 Weather
VE TI I IM PR

The
 Wind
 is
 Angry

Saturday, December 1, 12

SC

IE NT

IF IC

A
 Perspective
 on
 the
 Weather
VE TI I IM PR

The
 Wind
 is
 Angry The
 Wind
 God
 is
 Angry

Saturday, December 1, 12

SC

IE NT

IF IC

A
 Perspective
 on
 the
 Weather
VE TI I IM PR

The
 Wind
 is
 Angry The
 Wind
 God
 is
 Angry The
 wind
 is
 a
 measurable,
  if
 currently
 unpredictable,
 
  form
 of
 energy

Saturday, December 1, 12

SC

IE NT

IF IC

Basic
 vs.
 Applied

Saturday, December 1, 12

Basic
 vs.
 Applied

La
 Clairvoyance.
 Rene
 Magritte 1936
Saturday, December 1, 12

Basic
 vs.
 Applied

Saturday, December 1, 12

Basic
 vs.
 Applied

Saturday, December 1, 12

Basic
 vs.
 Applied

Of
 what
 use
 is
 a
 new
 born
 baby?
Saturday, December 1, 12

Basic
 vs.
 Applied

Of
 what
 use
 is
 a
 new
 born
 baby? -­‐Benjamin
 Franklin,
 ~1783
Saturday, December 1, 12

1928,
 Paul
 Dirac
 predicts
 existence
 of
 positron
 -­‐
 the
 anti-­‐electron
 

Saturday, December 1, 12

1928,
 Paul
 Dirac
 predicts
 existence
 of
 positron
 -­‐
 the
 anti-­‐electron
 

1932,
 C.D.
 Anderson
 discovers
 the
 1st
 positron
 with
 a
 cloud
  chamber

Saturday, December 1, 12

1928,
 Paul
 Dirac
 predicts
 existence
 of
 positron
 -­‐
 the
 anti-­‐electron
 

1932,
 C.D.
 Anderson
 discovers
 the
 1st
 positron
 with
 a
 cloud
  chamber

1950-­‐76,
 Development
 of
 PET
 scanning
 
 
  for
 medical
 diagnostics
 and
 
 research

Saturday, December 1, 12

1928,
 Paul
 Dirac
 predicts
 existence
 of
 positron
 -­‐
 the
 anti-­‐electron
 

1932,
 C.D.
 Anderson
 discovers
 the
 1st
 positron
 with
 a
 cloud
  chamber

1950-­‐76,
 Development
 of
 PET
 scanning
 
 
  for
 medical
 diagnostics
 and
 
 research Positron
 Emission
 Tomography

Saturday, December 1, 12

In
 an
 honest
 search
 for
 knowledge
 you
 quite
  often
 have
 to
 abide
 by
 ignorance
 for
 an
 inde*inite
  period.
  -­‐Erwin
 Schrodinger,
 
 1948

Saturday, December 1, 12

Ambiguous
 Figures

Saturday, December 1, 12

Ambiguous
 Figures
the
  Dif*iculty
 of
 Uncertainty

Saturday, December 1, 12

I’m
 turning
 into
 my
 mother
Saturday, December 1, 12

I’m
 turning
 into
 my
 mother
Saturday, December 1, 12

I’m
 turning
 into
 my
 mother
Saturday, December 1, 12

The
 Necker
 Cube

Saturday, December 1, 12

The
 Necker
 Cube

Saturday, December 1, 12

The
 Necker
 Cube

Saturday, December 1, 12

Les
 Deux
 Freres
James
 Hodges

Saturday, December 1, 12

Les
 Deux
 Freres
James
 Hodges

Saturday, December 1, 12

The
 Values
 of
 Science

Fact Surety Conviction

Saturday, December 1, 12

The
 Values
 of
 Science

Ignorance
  Doubt Uncertainty

Saturday, December 1, 12

In
 an
 honest
 search
 for
 knowledge
 you
 quite
  often
 have
 to
 abide
 by
 ignorance
 for
 an
 inde*inite
  period.
  -­‐Erwin
 Schrodinger,
 
 1948

Saturday, December 1, 12

In
 an
 honest
 search
 for
 knowledge
 you
 quite
  often
 have
 to
 abide
 by
 ignorance
 for
 an
 inde*inite
  period.
  -­‐Erwin
 Schrodinger,
 
 1948

Saturday, December 1, 12

In
 an
 honest
 search
 for
 knowledge
 you
 quite
  often
 have
 to
 abide
 by
 ignorance
 for
 an
 inde*inite
  period.
  -­‐Erwin
 Schrodinger,
 
 1948

Keep
 the
 company
 of
 those
 who
 seek
 the
 truth;
  *lee
 from
 those
 who
 claim
 to
 have
 found
 it. -­‐Vaclav
 Havel,
 author,
 politician (from
 Andre
 Gide)

Saturday, December 1, 12

Ignorance
how it drives science
Stuart
 Firestein Columbia
 University New
 York,
 NY
http://ignorance.biology.columbia.edu/
Saturday, December 1, 12

?