Biblio

Guidelines, directives, and policy statements are usually presented in “linear” text form - word after word, page after page. However necessary, this practice impedes full understanding, obscures feedback dynamics, hides mutual dependencies and cascading effects and the like-even when augmented with tables and diagrams. The net result is often a checklist response as an end in itself. All this creates barriers to intended realization of guidelines and undermines potential effectiveness. We present a solution strategy using text as “data”, transforming text into a structured model, and generate network views of the text(s), that we then can use for vulnerability mapping, risk assessments and note control point analysis. For proof of concept we draw on NIST conceptual model and analysis of guidelines for smart grid cybersecurity, more than 600 pages of text.

Policy documents are usually written in text form—word after word, sentence after sentence, page after page, section after section, chapter after chapter—which often masks some of their most critical features. The text form cannot easily show interconnections among elements, identify the relative salience of issues, or represent feedback dynamics, for example. These are “hidden” features that are difficult to situate. This paper presents a computational analysis of Tallinn Manual 2.0 on the International Law Applicable to Cyber Operations, a seminal work in International Law. Tallinn Manual 2.0 is a seminal document for many reasons, including but not limited to, its (a) authoritative focus on cyber operations, (b) foundation in the fundamental legal principles of the international order and (c) direct relevance to theory, practice, and policy in international relations. The results identify the overwhelming dominance of specific Rules, the centrality of select Rules, the Rules with autonomous standing (that is, not connected to the rest of the corpus), and highlight different aspects of Tallinn Manual 2.0, notably situating authority, security of information -- the feedback structure that keeps the pieces together. This study serves as a “proof of concept” for the use of computational logics to enhance our understanding of policy documents.

Policy documents are usually written in text form— word after word, sentence after sentence etc.—which often obscures some of their most critical features. Text cannot easily situate interconnections among elements, or identify feedback, nor reveal other embedded features. This paper presents a computational approach to International Law Applicable to Cyber Operations 2.0, Tallinn Manual, a seminal work of 600 pages at the intersection of law and cyberspace. The results identify the dominance of specific Rules, the centrality of select Rules, and Rules with autonomous standing, as well as the feedback structure that holds the system together. None of these features are evident from the text alone.

This paper presents a brief introduction to Cyber-IR@MIT—a dynamic, interactive knowledge and networking system focused on the evolving, diverse, and complex interconnections of cyberspace and international relations. The goal is to highlight key theoretical, substantive, empirical and networking issues. Cyber-IR@MIT is anchored in a multidimensional ontology. It was initially framed as an experiment during the MIT-Harvard collaboration on Explorations in Cyber International Relations (MIT, 2009-2014) to serve as a forum for quality-controlled content and materials generated throughout the research project. The vision for Cyber-IR@MIT is shaped by the research for Cyberpolitics in International Relations, a book written by Nazli Choucri and published by MIT Press in 2012. The operational approach to the knowledge system is influenced by the Global System for Sustainable Development (GSSD), developed earlier and focused on challenges of system sustainability. Cyber-IR@MIT gradually evolved into a knowledge-based system of human interactions in cyberspace and international relations, all embedded in the overarching natural system. The method consists of differentiating among the various facets of human activity in (i) cyberspace, (ii) international relations, and (iii) the intersection of the cyber and “real.” It includes problems created by humans and solution strategies, as well as enabling functions and capabilities, on the one hand, and impediments to behavior and associated barriers, on the other. See https://cyberir.mit.edu for functions. The value of this initiative lies in its conceptual foundations and method of knowledge representation – embedded in an interactive system for knowledge submission, with f search and retrieval functions.

Executive Order, May 2019 states: “...foreign adversaries are increasingly creating and exploiting vulnerabilities in information and communications technology and services ... in order to commit malicious cyber-enabled actions, including economic and industrial espionage against the United States and its people. ” [1]. This paper focuses on challenges of securing the long chain of global communication infrastructure, presents some illustrative data, and puts forth a multi-method research design for analysis of long-chain systems of information and or communications technology, infrastructure, services, ownership, providers, and networks - within a state and outside its jurisdiction - all essential for unimpeded global operations. A proof of concept for data requirements to support end-to-end integrated research is provided, along with highlights of some initial empirical analysis, with China as a case in point.

The term lateral pressure refers to any tendency (or propensity) of states, firms, and other entities to expand their activities and exert influence and control beyond their established boundaries, whether for economic, political, military, scientific, religious, or other purposes. Framed by Robert C. North and Nazli Choucri, the theory addresses the sources and consequences of such a tendency. This chapter presents the core features—assumptions, logic, core variables, and dynamics—and summarizes the quantitative work undertaken to date. Some aspects of the theory analysis are more readily quantifiable than others. Some are consistent with conventional theory in international relations. Others are based on insights and evidence from other areas of knowledge, thus departing from tradition in potentially significant ways. Initially applied to the causes of war, the theory focuses on the question of: Who does what, when, how, and with what consequences? The causal logic in lateral pressure theory runs from the internal drivers (i.e., the master variables that shape the profiles of states) through the intervening variables (i.e., aggregated and articulated demands given prevailing capabilities), and the outcomes often generate added complexities. To the extent that states expand their activities outside territorial boundaries, driven by a wide range of capabilities and motivations, they are likely to encounter other states similarly engaged. The intersection among spheres of influence is the first step in complex dynamics that lead to hostilities, escalation, and eventually conflict and violence. The quantitative analysis of lateral pressure theory consists of six distinct phases. The first phase began with a large-scale, cross-national, multiple equation econometric investigation of the 45 years leading to World War I, followed by a system of simultaneous equations representing conflict dynamics among competing powers in the post–World War II era. The second phase is a detailed econometric analysis of Japan over the span of more than a century and two World Wars. The third phase of lateral pressure involves system dynamics modeling of growth and expansion of states from 1970s to the end of the 20th century and explores the use of fuzzy logic in this process. The fourth phase focuses on the state-based sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gases to endogenize the natural environment in the study of international relations. The fifth phase presents a detailed ontology of the driving variables shaping lateral pressure and their critical constituents in order to (a) frame their interconnections, (b) capture knowledge on sustainable development, (c) create knowledge management methods for the search, retrieval, and use of knowledge on sustainable development and (d) examine the use of visualization techniques for knowledge display and analysis. The sixth, and most recent, phase of lateral pressure theory and empirical analysis examines the new realities created by the construction of cyberspace and interactions with the traditional international order.