Data-Driven Model-Based Decision-Making - October 2014

Public Audience
Purpose: To highlight project progress. Information is generally at a higher level which is accessible to the interested public. All information contained in the report (regions 1-3) is a Government Deliverable/CDRL.

PI(s): William Sanders, Masooda Bashir, David Nicol, and Aad Van Moorsel (Newcastle Univ., UK)

Researchers: Ken Keefe, Mohamad Noureddine, and Charles Morriset (Newcastle Univ., UK)

HARD PROBLEM(S) ADDRESSED
This refers to Hard Problems, released November 2012.

* Predictive Security Metrics - System security analysis requires a holistic approach that considers the behavior of non-human subsystem, bad actors or adversaries, and expected human participants such as users and system administrators. We are developing the HITOP modeling formalism to formally describe the behavior of human participants and how their decisions affect overall system performance and security. With this modeling methodology and the tool support we are developing, we will produce quantitative security metrics for cyber-human systems.
* Human Behavior - Modeling and evaluating human behavior is challenging, but it is an imperative component in security analysis. Stochastic modeling serves as a good approximation of human behavior, but we intend to do more with the HITOP method, which considers a task based process modeling language that evaluates a human's opportunity, willingness, and capability to perform individual tasks in their daily behavior. Partnered with an effective data collection strategy to validate model parameters, we are working to provide a sound model of human behavior.

PUBLICATIONS
Papers published in this quarter as a result of this research. Include title, author(s), venue published/presented, and a short description or abstract. Identify which hard problem(s) the publication addressed. Papers that have not yet been published should be reported in region 2 below.

No publications to report this quarter.

ACCOMPLISHMENT HIGHLIGHTS

* A new PhD student, Mohammad Noureddine, has begun work on the project. He is in the process of getting acquainted with the work performed in the previous SoS Lablet project.
* Newcastle University has lined up their research team for their work on the project.
* Regular team meetings at UIUC have commenced and planning for improvements to the current HITOP prototype has been completed.
* Full team kick off with Newcastle University has been scheduled for the first week of October.