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2022-04-18
Rafaiani, Giulia, Battaglioni, Massimo, Baldi, Marco, Chiaraluce, Franco, Libertini, Giovanni, Spalazzi, Luca, Cancellieri, Giovanni.  2021.  A Functional Approach to Cyber Risk Assessment. 2021 AEIT International Annual Conference (AEIT). :1–6.
Information security has become a crucial issue not only from the technical standpoint, but also from the managerial standpoint. The necessity for organizations to understand and manage cyber risk has led to the rise of a plethora of risk assessment methods and tools. These approaches are often difficult to interpret and complex to manage for organizations. In this paper, we propose a simple and quantitative method for the estimation of the likelihood of occurrence of a cyber incident. Our approach uses a generalized logistic function and a cumulative geometric distribution to combine the maturity and the complexity of the technical infrastructure of an organization with its attractiveness towards cyber criminals.