Biblio

Cyber-attacks are cheap, easy to conduct and often pose little risk in terms of attribution, but their impact could be lasting. The low attribution is because tracing cyber-attacks is primitive in the current network architecture. Moreover, even when attribution is known, the absence of enforcement provisions in international law makes cyber attacks tough to litigate, and hence attribution is hardly a deterrent. Rather than attributing attacks, we can re-look at cyber-attacks as societal events associated with social, political, economic and cultural (SPEC) motivations. Because it is possible to observe SPEC motives on the internet, social media data could be valuable in understanding cyber attacks. In this research, we use sentiment in Twitter posts to observe country-to-country perceptions, and Arbor Networks data to build ground truth of country-to-country DDoS cyber-attacks. Using this dataset, this research makes three important contributions: a) We evaluate the impact of heightened sentiments towards a country on the trend of cyber-attacks received by the country. We find that, for some countries, the probability of attacks increases by up to 27% while experiencing negative sentiments from other nations. b) Using cyber-attacks trend and sentiments trend, we build a decision tree model to find attacks that could be related to extreme sentiments. c) To verify our model, we describe three examples in which cyber-attacks follow increased tension between nations, as perceived in social media.

Cyber-attacks are cheap, easy to conduct and often pose little risk in terms of attribution, but their impact could be lasting. The low attribution is because tracing cyber-attacks is primitive in the current network architecture. Moreover, even when attribution is known, the absence of enforcement provisions in international law makes cyber attacks tough to litigate, and hence attribution is hardly a deterrent. Rather than attributing attacks, we can re-look at cyber-attacks as societal events associated with social, political, economic and cultural (SPEC) motivations. Because it is possible to observe SPEC motives on the internet, social media data could be valuable in understanding cyber attacks. In this research, we use sentiment in Twitter posts to observe country-to-country perceptions, and Arbor Networks data to build ground truth of country-to-country DDoS cyber-attacks. Using this dataset, this research makes three important contributions: a) We evaluate the impact of heightened sentiments towards a country on the trend of cyber-attacks received by the country. We find that, for some countries, the probability of attacks increases by up to 27% while experiencing negative sentiments from other nations. b) Using cyber-attacks trend and sentiments trend, we build a decision tree model to find attacks that could be related to extreme sentiments. c) To verify our model, we describe three examples in which cyber-attacks follow increased tension between nations, as perceived in social media.

Online cyber threat descriptions are rich, but little research has attempted to systematically analyze these descriptions. In this paper, we process and analyze two of Symantec’s online threat description corpora. The Anti-Virus (AV) corpus contains descriptions of more than 12,400 threats detected by Symantec’s AV, and the Intrusion Prevention System (IPS) corpus contains descriptions of more than 2,700 attacks detected by Symantec’s IPS. In our analysis, we quantify the over time evolution of threat severity and type in the corpora. We also assess the amount of time Symantec takes to release signatures for newly discovered threats. Our analysis indicates that a very small minority of threats in the AV corpus are high-severity, whereas the majority of attacks in the IPS corpus are high-severity. Moreover, we find that the prevalence of different threat types such as worms and viruses in the corpora varies considerably over time. Finally, we find that Symantec prioritizes releasing signatures for fast propagating threats.