Biblio
Probabilistic model checking is a useful technique for specifying and verifying properties of stochastic systems including randomized protocols and reinforcement learning models. However, these methods rely on the assumed structure and probabilities of certain system transitions. These assumptions may be incorrect, and may even be violated by an adversary who gains control of some system components. In this paper, we develop a formal framework for adversarial robustness in systems modeled as discrete time Markov chains (DTMCs). We base our framework on existing methods for verifying probabilistic temporal logic properties and extend it to include deterministic, memoryless policies acting in Markov decision processes (MDPs). Our framework includes a flexible approach for specifying structure-preserving and non structure-preserving adversarial models. We outline a class of threat models under which adversaries can perturb system transitions, constrained by an ε ball around the original transition probabilities. We define three main DTMC adversarial robustness problems: adversarial robustness verification, maximal δ synthesis, and worst case attack synthesis. We present two optimization-based solutions to these three problems, leveraging traditional and parametric probabilistic model checking techniques. We then evaluate our solutions on two stochastic protocols and a collection of Grid World case studies, which model an agent acting in an environment described as an MDP. We find that the parametric solution results in fast computation for small parameter spaces. In the case of less restrictive (stronger) adversaries, the number of parameters increases, and directly computing property satisfaction probabilities is more scalable. We demonstrate the usefulness of our definitions and solutions by comparing system outcomes over various properties, threat models, and case studies.
Unlike a random, run-of-the-mill website infection, in a strategic web attack, the adversary carefully chooses the target frequently visited by an organization or a group of individuals to compromise, for the purpose of gaining a step closer to the organization or collecting information from the group. This type of attacks, called "watering hole", have been increasingly utilized by APT actors to get into the internal networks of big companies and government agencies or monitor politically oriented groups. With its importance, little has been done so far to understand how the attack works, not to mention any concrete step to counter this threat. In this paper, we report our first step toward better understanding this emerging threat, through systematically discovering and analyzing new watering hole instances and attack campaigns. This was made possible by a carefully designed methodology, which repeatedly monitors a large number potential watering hole targets to detect unusual changes that could be indicative of strategic compromises. Running this system on the HTTP traffic generated from visits to 61K websites for over 5 years, we are able to discover and confirm 17 watering holes and 6 campaigns never reported before. Given so far there are merely 29 watering holes reported by blogs and technical reports, the findings we made contribute to the research on this attack vector, by adding 59% more attack instances and information about how they work to the public knowledge. Analyzing the new watering holes allows us to gain deeper understanding of these attacks, such as repeated compromises of political websites, their long lifetimes, unique evasion strategy (leveraging other compromised sites to serve attack payloads) and new exploit techniques (no malware delivery, web only information gathering). Also, our study brings to light interesting new observations, including the discovery of a recent JSONP attack on an NGO website that has been widely reported and apparently forced the attack to stop.