Biblio

Online controlled experiments (e.g., A/B tests) are now regularly used to guide product development and accelerate innovation in software. Product ideas are evaluated as scientific hypotheses, and tested in web sites, mobile applications, desktop applications, services, and operating systems. One of the key challenges for organizations that run controlled experiments is to come up with the right set of metrics [1] [2] [3]. Having good metrics, however, is not enough. In our experience of running thousands of experiments with many teams across Microsoft, we observed again and again how incorrect interpretations of metric movements may lead to wrong conclusions about the experiment's outcome, which if deployed could hurt the business by millions of dollars. Inspired by Steven Goodman's twelve p-value misconceptions [4], in this paper, we share twelve common metric interpretation pitfalls which we observed repeatedly in our experiments. We illustrate each pitfall with a puzzling example from a real experiment, and describe processes, metric design principles, and guidelines that can be used to detect and avoid the pitfall. With this paper, we aim to increase the experimenters' awareness of metric interpretation issues, leading to improved quality and trustworthiness of experiment results and better data-driven decisions.

You get what you measure, and you can't manage what you don't measure. Metrics are a powerful tool used in organizations to set goals, decide which new products and features should be released to customers, which new tests and experiments should be conducted, and how resources should be allocated. To a large extent, metrics drive the direction of an organization, and getting metrics 'right' is one of the most important and difficult problems an organization needs to solve. However, creating good metrics that capture long-term company goals is difficult. They try to capture abstract concepts such as success, delight, loyalty, engagement, life-time value, etc. How can one determine that a metric is a good one? Or, that one metric is better than another? In other words, how do we measure the quality of metrics? Can the evaluation process be automated so that anyone with an idea of a new metric can quickly evaluate it? In this paper we describe the metric evaluation system deployed at Bing, where we have been working on designing and improving metrics for over five years. We believe that by applying a data driven approach to metric evaluation we have been able to substantially improve our metrics and, as a result, ship better features and improve search experience for Bing's users.