Biblio

Modern day cyber-infrastructures are critically dependent on each other to provide essential services. Current frameworks typically focus on the risk analysis of an isolated infrastructure. Evaluation of potential disruptions taking the heterogeneous cyber-infrastructures is vital to note the cascading disruption vectors and determine the appropriate interventions to limit the damaging impact. This paper presents a cyber-security risk assessment framework for the interconnected cyber-infrastructures. Our methodology is designed to be comprehensive in terms of accommodating accidental incidents and malicious cyber threats. Technically, we model the functional dependencies between the different architectures using reliability block diagrams (RBDs). RBDs are convenient, yet powerful graphical diagrams, which succinctly describe the functional dependence between the system components. The analysis begins by selecting a service from the many services that are outputted by the synchronized operation of the architectures whose disruption is deemed critical. For this service, we design an attack fault tree (AFT). AFT is a recent graphical formalism that combines the two popular formalisms of attack trees and fault trees. We quantify the attack-fault tree and compute the risk metrics - the probability of a disruption and the damaging impact. For this purpose, we utilize the open source ADTool. We show the efficacy of our framework with an example outage incident.

Information security has become a crucial issue not only from the technical standpoint, but also from the managerial standpoint. The necessity for organizations to understand and manage cyber risk has led to the rise of a plethora of risk assessment methods and tools. These approaches are often difficult to interpret and complex to manage for organizations. In this paper, we propose a simple and quantitative method for the estimation of the likelihood of occurrence of a cyber incident. Our approach uses a generalized logistic function and a cumulative geometric distribution to combine the maturity and the complexity of the technical infrastructure of an organization with its attractiveness towards cyber criminals.

The energy sector has been actively looking into cyber risk assessment at a global level, as it has a ripple effect; risk taken at one step in supply chain has an impact on all the other nodes. Cyber-attacks not only hinder functional operations in an organization but also waves damaging effects to the reputation and confidence among shareholders resulting in financial losses. Organizations that are open to the idea of protecting their assets and information flow and are equipped; enough to respond quickly to any cyber incident are the ones who prevail longer in global market. As a contribution we put forward a modular plan to mitigate or reduce cyber risks in global supply chain by identifying potential cyber threats at each step and identifying their immediate counterm easures.