Biblio

Multiple techniques for modeling cybersecurity attacks and defense have been developed. The use of tree- structures as well as techniques proposed by several firms (such as Lockheed Martin's Cyber Kill Chain, Microsoft's STRIDE and the MITRE ATT&CK frameworks) have all been demonstrated. These approaches model actions that can be taken to attack or stopped to secure infrastructure and other resources, at different levels of detail.This paper builds on prior work on using the Blackboard Architecture for cyberwarfare and proposes a generalized solution for modeling framework/paradigm-based attacks that go beyond the deployment of a single exploit against a single identified target. The Blackboard Architecture Cyber Command Entity attack Route (BACCER) identification system combines rules and facts that implement attack type determination and attack decision making logic with actions that implement reconnaissance techniques and attack and defense actions. BACCER's efficacy to model examples of tree-structures and other models is demonstrated herein.

With the increasing interdependence of critical infrastructures, the probability of a specific infrastructure to experience a complex cyber-physical attack is increasing. Thus it is important to analyze the risk of an attack and the dynamics of its propagation in order to design and deploy appropriate countermeasures. The attack trees, commonly adopted to this aim, have inherent shortcomings in representing interdependent, concurrent and sequential attacks. To overcome this, the work presented here proposes a stochastic methodology using Petri Nets and Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) to analyze the attacks, considering the individual attack occurrence probabilities and their stochastic propagation times. A procedure to convert a basic attack tree into an equivalent CTMC is presented. The proposed method is applied in a case study to calculate the different attack propagation characteristics. The characteristics are namely, the probability of reaching the root node & sub attack nodes, the mean time to reach the root node and the mean time spent in the sub attack nodes before reaching the root node. Additionally, the method quantifies the effectiveness of specific defenses in reducing the attack risk considering the efficiency of individual defenses.

Attacks on cloud-computing services are becoming more prevalent with recent victims including Tesla, Aviva Insurance and SIM-card manufacturer Gemalto[1]. The risk posed to organisations from malicious insiders is becoming more widely known about and consequently many are now investing in hardware, software and new processes to try to detect these attacks. As for all types of attack vector, there will always be those which are not known about and those which are known about but remain exceptionally difficult to detect - particularly in a timely manner. We believe that insider attacks are of particular concern in a cloud-computing environment, and that cloud-service providers should enhance their ability to detect them by means of indirect detection. We propose a combined attack-tree and kill-chain based method for identifying multiple indirect detection measures. Specifically, the use of attack trees enables us to encapsulate all detection opportunities for insider attacks in cloud-service environments. Overlaying the attack tree on top of a kill chain in turn facilitates indirect detection opportunities higher-up the tree as well as allowing the provider to determine how far an attack has progressed once suspicious activity is detected. We demonstrate the method through consideration of a specific type of insider attack - that of attempting to capture virtual machines in transit within a cloud cluster via use of a network tap, however, the process discussed here applies equally to all cloud paradigms.

It is important to assess the cost benefits of IT security investments. Typically, this is done by manual risk assessment process. In this paper, we propose an approach to automate this using graphical security models (GSMs). GSMs have been used to assess the security of networked systems using various security metrics. Most of the existing GSMs assumed that networks are static, however, modern networks (e.g., Cloud and Software Defined Networking) are dynamic with changes. Thus, it is important to develop an approach that takes into account the dynamic aspects of networks. To this end, we automate security investments analysis of dynamic networks using a GSM named Temporal-Hierarchical Attack Representation Model (T-HARM) in order to automatically evaluate the security investments and their effectiveness for a given period of time. We demonstrate our approach via simulations.

Advanced Persistent Threats are increasingly becoming one of the major concerns to many industries and organizations. Currently, there exists numerous articles and industrial reports describing various case studies of recent notable Advanced Persistent Threat attacks. However, these documents are expressed in natural language. This limits the efficient reusability of the threat intelligence information due to ambiguous nature of the natural language. In this article, we propose a model to formally represent Advanced Persistent Threats as multi-agent systems. Our model is inspired by the concepts of agent-oriented social modelling approaches, generally used for software security requirement analysis.

It is difficult to assess the security of modern enterprise networks because they are usually dynamic with configuration changes (such as changes in topology, firewall rules, etc). Graphical security models (e.g., Attack Graphs and Attack Trees) and security metrics (e.g., attack cost, shortest attack path) are widely used to systematically analyse the security posture of network systems. However, there are problems using them to assess the security of dynamic networks. First, the existing graphical security models are unable to capture dynamic changes occurring in the networks over time. Second, the existing security metrics are not designed for dynamic networks such that their effectiveness to the dynamic changes in the network is still unknown. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive analysis via simulations to evaluate the effectiveness of security metrics using a Temporal Hierarchical Attack Representation Model. Further, we investigate the varying effects of security metrics when changes are observed in the dynamic networks. Our experimental analysis shows that different security metrics have varying security posture changes with respect to changes in the network.

It is difficult to assess the security of modern enterprise networks because they are usually dynamic with configuration changes (such as changes in topology, firewall rules, etc). Graphical security models (e.g., Attack Graphs and Attack Trees) and security metrics (e.g., attack cost, shortest attack path) are widely used to systematically analyse the security posture of network systems. However, there are problems using them to assess the security of dynamic networks. First, the existing graphical security models are unable to capture dynamic changes occurring in the networks over time. Second, the existing security metrics are not designed for dynamic networks such that their effectiveness to the dynamic changes in the network is still unknown. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive analysis via simulations to evaluate the effectiveness of security metrics using a Temporal Hierarchical Attack Representation Model. Further, we investigate the varying effects of security metrics when changes are observed in the dynamic networks. Our experimental analysis shows that different security metrics have varying security posture changes with respect to changes in the network.

It is difficult to assess the security of modern enterprise networks because they are usually dynamic with configuration changes (such as changes in topology, firewall rules, etc). Graphical security models (e.g., Attack Graphs and Attack Trees) and security metrics (e.g., attack cost, shortest attack path) are widely used to systematically analyse the security posture of network systems. However, there are problems using them to assess the security of dynamic networks. First, the existing graphical security models are unable to capture dynamic changes occurring in the networks over time. Second, the existing security metrics are not designed for dynamic networks such that their effectiveness to the dynamic changes in the network is still unknown. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive analysis via simulations to evaluate the effectiveness of security metrics using a Temporal Hierarchical Attack Representation Model. Further, we investigate the varying effects of security metrics when changes are observed in the dynamic networks. Our experimental analysis shows that different security metrics have varying security posture changes with respect to changes in the network.

Given a model with multiple input parameters, and multiple possible sources for collecting data for those parameters, a data collection strategy is a way of deciding from which sources to sample data, in order to reduce the variance on the output of the model. Cain and Van Moorsel have previously formulated the problem of optimal data collection strategy, when each arameter can be associated with a prior normal distribution, and when sampling is associated with a cost. In this paper, we present ADaCS, a new tool built as an extension of PRISM, which automatically analyses all possible data collection strategies for a model, and selects the optimal one. We illustrate ADaCS on attack trees, which are a structured approach to analyse the impact and the likelihood of success of attacks and defenses on computer and socio-technical systems. Furthermore, we introduce a new strategy exploration heuristic that significantly improves on a brute force approach.