Biblio

We consider a class of robust optimization problems that we call “robust-to-dynamics optimization” (RDO). The input to an RDO problem is twofold: (i) a mathematical program (e.g., an LP, SDP, IP, etc.), and (ii) a dynamical system (e.g., a linear, nonlinear, discrete, or continuous dynamics). The objective is to maximize over the set of initial conditions that forever remain feasible under the dynamics. The focus of this paper is on the case where the optimization problem is a linear program and the dynamics are linear. We establish some structural properties of the feasible set and prove that if the linear system is asymptotically stable, then the RDO problem can be solved in polynomial time. We also outline a semidefinite programming based algorithm for providing upper bounds on robust-to-dynamics linear programs.

The increasing exploitation of the internet leads to new uncertainties, due to interdependencies and links between cyber and physical layers. As an example, the integration between telecommunication and physical processes, that happens when the power grid is managed and controlled, yields to epistemic uncertainty. Managing this uncertainty is possible using specific frameworks, usually coming from fuzzy theory such as Evidence Theory. This approach is attractive due to its flexibility in managing uncertainty by means of simple rule-based systems with data coming from heterogeneous sources. In this paper, Evidence Theory is applied in order to evaluate risk. Therefore, the authors propose a frame of discernment with a specific property among the elements based on a graph representation. This relationship leads to a smaller power set (called Reduced Power Set) that can be used as the classical power set, when the most common combination rules, such as Dempster or Smets, are applied. The paper demonstrates how the use of the Reduced Power Set yields to more efficient algorithms for combining evidences and to application of Evidence Theory for assessing risk.

In this paper, we focus on the principal-agent problems in continuous time when the participants have ambiguity on the output process in the framework of g-expectation. The first best (or, risk-sharing) type is studied. The necessary condition of the optimal contract is derived by means of the optimal control theory. Finally, we present some examples to clarify our results.

Security decision-making is a critical task in tackling security threats affecting a system or process. It often involves selecting a suitable resolution action to tackle an identified security risk. To support this selection process, decision-makers should be able to evaluate and compare available decision options. This article introduces a modelling language that can be used to represent the effects of resolution actions on the stakeholders' goals, the crime process, and the attacker. In order to reach this aim, we develop a multidisciplinary framework that combines existing knowledge from the fields of software engineering, crime science, risk assessment, and quantitative decision analysis. The framework is illustrated through an application to a case of identity theft.

The use of multi-terminal HVDC to integrate wind power coming from the North Sea opens de door for a new transmission system model, the DC-Independent System Operator (DC-ISO). DC-ISO will face highly stressed and varying conditions that requires new risk assessment tools to ensure security of supply. This paper proposes a novel risk-based static security assessment methodology named risk-based DC security assessment (RB-DCSA). It combines a probabilistic approach to include uncertainties and a fuzzy inference system to quantify the systemic and individual component risk associated with operational scenarios considering uncertainties. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a multi-terminal HVDC system where the variability of wind speed at the offshore wind is included.

Risk-control optimization has great significance for security of power system. Usually the probabilistic uncertainties of parameters are considered in the research of risk optimization of power system. However, the method of probabilistic uncertainty description will be insufficient in the case of lack of sample data. Thus non-probabilistic uncertainties of parameters should be considered, and will impose a significant influence on the results of optimization. To solve this problem, a robust optimization operation method of power system risk-control is presented in this paper, considering the non-probabilistic uncertainty of parameters based on information gap decision theory (IGDT). In the method, loads are modeled as the non-probabilistic uncertainty parameters, and the model of robust optimization operation of risk-control is presented. By solving the model, the maximum fluctuation of the pre-specified target can be obtained, and the strategy of this situation can be obtained at the same time. The proposed model is applied to the IEEE-30 system of risk-control by simulation. The results can provide the valuable information for operating department to risk management.

Quantitative analysis of security properties in wireless communication systems is an important issue; it helps us get a comprehensive view of security and can be used to compare the security performance of different systems. This paper analyzes the security of future wireless communication system from an information-theoretic point of view and proposes an overall security metric. We demonstrate that the proposed metric is more reasonable than some existing metrics and it is highly sensitive to some basic parameters and helpful to do fine-grained tuning of security performance.

Preserving the availability and integrity of networked computing systems in the face of fast-spreading intrusions requires advances not only in detection algorithms, but also in automated response techniques. In this paper, we propose a new approach to automated response called the response and recovery engine (RRE). Our engine employs a game-theoretic response strategy against adversaries modeled as opponents in a two-player Stackelberg stochastic game. The RRE applies attack-response trees (ART) to analyze undesired system-level security events within host computers and their countermeasures using Boolean logic to combine lower level attack consequences. In addition, the RRE accounts for uncertainties in intrusion detection alert notifications. The RRE then chooses optimal response actions by solving a partially observable competitive Markov decision process that is automatically derived from attack-response trees. To support network-level multiobjective response selection and consider possibly conflicting network security properties, we employ fuzzy logic theory to calculate the network-level security metric values, i.e., security levels of the system's current and potentially future states in each stage of the game. In particular, inputs to the network-level game-theoretic response selection engine, are first fed into the fuzzy system that is in charge of a nonlinear inference and quantitative ranking of the possible actions using its previously defined fuzzy rule set. Consequently, the optimal network-level response actions are chosen through a game-theoretic optimization process. Experimental results show that the RRE, using Snort's alerts, can protect large networks for which attack-response trees have more than 500 nodes.

This paper presents the application of fusion meth- ods to a visual surveillance scenario. The range of relevant features for re-identifying vehicles is discussed, along with the methods for fusing probabilistic estimates derived from these estimates. In particular, two statistical parametric fusion methods are considered: Bayesian Networks and the Dempster Shafer approach. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a metric to allow direct comparison of the benefits of the two methods. This is achieved by generalising the Kelly betting strategy to accommodate a variable total stake for each sample, subject to a fixed expected (mean) stake. This metric provides a method to quantify the extra information provided by the Dempster-Shafer method, in comparison to a Bayesian Fusion approach. 

Due to deep automation, the configuration of many Cloud infrastructures is static and homogeneous, which, while easing administration, significantly decreases a potential attacker's uncertainty on a deployed Cloud-based service and hence increases the chance of the service being compromised. Moving-target defense (MTD) is a promising solution to the configuration staticity and homogeneity problem. This paper presents our findings on whether and to what extent MTD is effective in protecting a Cloud-based service with heterogeneous and dynamic attack surfaces - these attributes, which match the reality of current Cloud infrastructures, have not been investigated together in previous works on MTD in general network settings. We 1) formulate a Cloud-based service security model that incorporates Cloud-specific features such as VM migration/snapshotting and the diversity/compatibility of migration, 2) consider the accumulative effect of the attacker's intelligence on the target service's attack surface, 3) model the heterogeneity and dynamics of the service's attack surfaces, as defined by the (dynamic) probability of the service being compromised, as an S-shaped generalized logistic function, and 4) propose a probabilistic MTD service deployment strategy that exploits the dynamics and heterogeneity of attack surfaces for protecting the service against attackers. Through simulation, we identify the conditions and extent of the proposed MTD strategy's effectiveness in protecting Cloud-based services. Namely, 1) MTD is more effective when the service deployment is dense in the replacement pool and/or when the attack is strong, and 2) attack-surface heterogeneity-and-dynamics awareness helps in improving MTD's effectiveness.

The installation of a protection system can provide protection by either deterring or stopping an attacker. Both modes of effectiveness-deterring and stopping-are uncertain. Some have guessed that deterrence plays a much bigger role than stopping force. The force of deterrence should therefore be of considerable interest, especially if its effect could be estimated and incorporated into a larger risk analysis and business case for developing and buying new systems, but nowhere has it been estimated quantitatively. The effect of one type of deterrence, namely, influencing an attacker's choice of targets-or target shifting, biasing an attacker away from some targets toward others-is assessed quantitatively here using a game-theoretic approach. It is shown that its positive effects are significant. It features as a force multiplier on the order of magnitude or more, even for low-performance security countermeasures whose effectiveness may be compromised somewhat, of necessity, in order to keep the number of false alarms serviceably low. The analysis furthermore implies that there are certain minimum levels of stopping performance that a protection should provide in order to avoid attracting the choice of attackers (under deterrence). Nothing in the analysis argues for complacency in security. Developers must still design the best affordable systems. The analysis enters into the middle ground of security, between no protection and impossibly perfect protection. It counters the criticisms that some raise about lower-level, affordable, sustainable measures that security providers naturally gravitate toward. Although these measures might in some places be defeated in ways that a non-expert can imagine, the measures are not for that reason irresponsible or to be dismissed. Their effectiveness can be much greater than they first appear.