Empirical Validation of System Dynamics Cyber Security Models

Model validation, though a process that's continuous and complex, establishes confidence in the soundness and usefulness of a model. Making sure that the model behaves similar to the modes of behavior seen in real systems, allows the builder of said model to assure accumulation of confidence in the model and thus validating the model. While doing this, the model builder is also required to build confidence from a target audience in the model through communicating to the bases. The basis of the system dynamics model validation, both in general and in the field of cyber security, relies on a casual loop diagram of the system being agreed upon by a group of experts. Model validation also uses formal quantitative and informal qualitative tools in addition to the validation techniques used by system dynamics. Amongst others, the usefulness of a model, in a user's eyes, is a valid standard by which we can evaluate them. To validate our system dynamics cyber security model, we used empirical structural and behavior tests. This paper describes tests of model structure and model behavior, which includes each test's purpose, the ways the tests were conducted, and empirical validation results using a proof-of-concept cyber security model.