Biblio

Another risk posed by the limited number of available vendors is the threat of supply chain attacks. According to researchers at CrowdStrike on June 27, 2017 the destructive malware known as NotPetya was deployed using a legitimate software package employed by organizations operating in Ukraine. The attack used an update mechanism built into the software to provide updates and distribute them to the vendor’s customers. This same mechanism had been used a month earlier to deploy other ransomware attacks. Supply chain attacks exploit a trust relationship between software or hardware vendors and their customers. These attacks can be widespread targeting the entire trusted vendor’s customer base and are growing in frequency as well as sophistication.

In context-aware applications, user's access privileges rely on both user's identity and context. Access control rules are usually statically defined while contexts and the system state can change dynamically. Changes in contexts can result in service disruptions. To address this issue, this poster proposes a reactive access control system that associates contingency plans with access control rules. Risk scores are also associated with actions part of the contingency plans. Such risks are estimated by using fuzzy inference. Our approach is cast into the XACML reference architecture.

The process for determining how to respond to a cyberattack involves evaluating many factors, including some with competing risks. Consequentially, decision makers in the private sector and policymakers in the U.S. government (USG) need a framework in order to make effective response decisions. The authors' research identified two competing risks: 1) the risk of not responding forcefully enough to deter a suspected attacker, and 2) responding in a manner that escalates a situation with an attacker. The authors also identified three primary factors that influence these risks: attribution confidence/time, the scale of the attack, and the relationship with the suspected attacker. This paper provides a framework to help decision makers understand how these factors interact to influence the risks associated with potential response options to cyberattacks. The views expressed do not reflect the official policy or position of the National Intelligence University, the Department of Defense, the U.S. Intelligence Community, or the U.S. Government.

Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) adds efficiency during all phases of the design lifecycle. MBSE tools enforce design policies and rules to capture the design elements, inter-element relationships, and their attributes in a consistent manner. The system elements, and attributes are captured and stored in a centralized MBSE database for future retrieval. Systems that depend on computer networks can be designed using MBSE to meet cybersecurity and resilience requirements. At each step of a structured systems engineering methodology, decisions need to be made regarding the selection of architecture and designs that mitigate cyber risk and enhance cyber resilience. Detailed risk and decision analysis methods involve complex models and computations which are often characterized as a Big Data analytic problem. In this paper, we argue in favor of using graph analytic methods with model based systems engineering to support risk and decision analyses when engineering cyber resilient systems.

Security within the IoT is currently below par. Common security issues include IoT device vendors not following security best practices and/or omitting crucial security controls and features within their devices, lack of defined and mandated IoT security standards, default IoT device configurations, missing secure update mechanisms to rectify security flaws discovered in IoT devices and the overall unintended consequence of complexity - the attack surface of networks comprising IoT devices can increase exponentially with the addition of each new device. In this paper we set out an approach using graphs and graph databases to understand IoT network complexity and the impact that different devices and their profiles have on the overall security of the underlying network and its associated data.

Smart grid utilizes cloud service to realize reliable, efficient, secured, and cost-effective power management, but there are a number of security risks in the cloud service of smart grid. The security risks are particularly problematic to operators of power information infrastructure who want to leverage the benefits of cloud. In this paper, security risk of cloud service in the smart grid are categorized and analyzed characteristics, and multi-layered index system of general technical risks is established, which applies to different patterns of cloud service. Cloud service risk of smart grid can evaluate according indexes.

Faced with a turbulent economic, political and social environment, Companies need to build effective risk management systems in their supply chains. Risk management can only be effective when the risks identification and analysis are enough accurate. In this perspective, this paper proposes a risk assessment approach based on the analytic hierarchy process and group decision making. In this study, a new method is introduced that will reduce the impact of incoherent judgments on group decision-making, It is, the “reduced weight function” that decreases the weight associated to a member of the expert panel based on the consistency of its judgments.

Information security can benefit from real-time cyber threat indicator sharing, in which companies and government agencies share their knowledge of emerging cyberattacks to benefit their sector and society at large. As attacks become increasingly sophisticated by exploiting behavioral dimensions of human computer operators, there is an increased risk to systems that store personal information. In addition, risk increases as individuals blur the boundaries between workplace and home computing (e.g., using workplace computers for personal reasons). This paper describes an architecture to leverage individual perceptions of privacy risk to compute privacy risk scores over cyber threat indicator data. Unlike security risk, which is a risk to a particular system, privacy risk concerns an individual's personal information being accessed and exploited. The architecture integrates tools to extract information entities from textual threat reports expressed in the STIX format and privacy risk estimates computed using factorial vignettes to survey individual risk perceptions. The architecture aims to optimize for scalability and adaptability to achieve real-time risk scoring.

While we have long had principles describing how access control enforcement should be implemented, such as the reference monitor concept, imprecision in access control mechanisms and access control policies leads to risks that may enable exploitation. In practice, least privilege access control policies often allow information flows that may enable exploits. In addition, the implementation of access control mechanisms often tries to balance security with ease of use implicitly (e.g., with respect to determining where to place authorization hooks) and approaches to tighten access control, such as accounting for program context, are ad hoc. In this paper, we define four types of risks in access control enforcement and explore possible approaches and challenges in tracking those types of risks. In principle, we advocate runtime tracking to produce risk estimates for each of these types of risk. To better understand the potential of risk estimation for authorization, we propose risk estimate functions for each of the four types of risk, finding that benign program deployments accumulate risks in each of the four areas for ten Android programs examined. As a result, we find that tracking of relative risk may be useful for guiding changes to security choices, such as authorized unsafe operations or placement of authorization checks, when risk differs from that expected.

When reasoning about software security, researchers and practitioners use the phrase ``attack surface'' as a metaphor for risk. Enumerate and minimize the ways attackers can break in then risk is reduced and the system is better protected, the metaphor says. But software systems are much more complicated than their surfaces. We propose function- and file-level attack surface metrics–-proximity and risky walk–-that enable fine-grained risk assessment. Our risky walk metric is highly configurable: we use PageRank on a probability-weighted call graph to simulate attacker behavior of finding or exploiting a vulnerability. We provide evidence-based guidance for deploying these metrics, including an extensive parameter tuning study. We conducted an empirical study on two large open source projects, FFmpeg and Wireshark, to investigate the potential correlation between our metrics and historical post-release vulnerabilities. We found our metrics to be statistically significantly associated with vulnerable functions/files with a small-to-large Cohen's d effect size. Our prediction model achieved an increase of 36% (in FFmpeg) and 27% (in Wireshark) in the average value of F-measure over a base model built with SLOC and coupling metrics. Our prediction model outperformed comparable models from prior literature with notable improvements: 58% reduction in false negative rate, 81% reduction in false positive rate, and 548% increase in F-measure. These metrics advance vulnerability prevention by [(a)] being flexible in terms of granularity, performing better than vulnerability prediction literature, and being tunable so that practitioners can tailor the metrics to their products and better assess security risk.

Humans can easily find themselves in high cost situations where they must choose between suggestions made by an automated decision aid and a conflicting human decision aid. Previous research indicates that humans often rely on automation or other humans, but not both simultaneously. Expanding on previous work conducted by Lyons and Stokes (2012), the current experiment measures how trust in automated or human decision aids differs along with perceived risk and workload. The simulated task required 126 participants to choose the safest route for a military convoy; they were presented with conflicting information from an automated tool and a human. Results demonstrated that as workload increased, trust in automation decreased. As the perceived risk increased, trust in the human decision aid increased. Individual differences in dispositional trust correlated with an increased trust in both decision aids. These findings can be used to inform training programs for operators who may receive information from human and automated sources. Examples of this context include: air traffic control, aviation, and signals intelligence.

Humans can easily find themselves in high cost situations where they must choose between suggestions made by an automated decision aid and a conflicting human decision aid. Previous research indicates that humans often rely on automation or other humans, but not both simultaneously. Expanding on previous work conducted by Lyons and Stokes (2012), the current experiment measures how trust in automated or human decision aids differs along with perceived risk and workload. The simulated task required 126 participants to choose the safest route for a military convoy; they were presented with conflicting information from an automated tool and a human. Results demonstrated that as workload increased, trust in automation decreased. As the perceived risk increased, trust in the human decision aid increased. Individual differences in dispositional trust correlated with an increased trust in both decision aids. These findings can be used to inform training programs for operators who may receive information from human and automated sources. Examples of this context include: air traffic control, aviation, and signals intelligence.

As cyber-physical systems (CPS) become prevalent in everyday life, it is critical to understand the factors that may impact the security of such systems. In this paper, we present insights from an initial study of historical security incidents to analyse such factors for a particular class of CPS: industrial control systems (ICS). Our study challenges the usual tendency to blame human fallibility or resort to simple explanations for what are often complex issues that lead to a security incident. We highlight that (i) perception errors are key in such incidents (ii) latent design conditions – e.g., improper specifications of a system's borders and capabilities – play a fundamental role in shaping perceptions, leading to security issues. Such design-time considerations are particularly critical for ICS, the life-cycle of which is usually measured in decades. Based on this analysis, we discuss how key characteristics of future smart CPS in such industrial settings can pose further challenges with regards to tackling latent design flaws.

There are relatively fewer studies on the security-check waiting lines for screening cargo containers using queueing models. In this paper, we address two important measures at a security-check system, which are concerning the security screening effectiveness and the efficiency. The goal of this paper is to provide a modelling framework to understand the economic trade-offs embedded in container-inspection decisions. In order to analyze the policy initiatives, we develop a stylized queueing model with the novel features pertaining to the security checkpoints.

A novel approach is developed for analyzing power system vulnerability related to extraordinary events. Vulnerability analyses are necessary for identification of barriers to prevent such events and as a basis for the emergency preparedness. Identification of cause and effect relationships to reveal vulnerabilities related to extraordinary events is a complex and difficult task. In the proposed approach, the analysis starts by identifying the critical consequences. Then the critical contingencies and operating states, and which external threats and causes that may result in such severe consequences, are identified. This is opposed to the traditional risk and vulnerability analysis which starts by analyzing threats and what can happen as a chain of events. The vulnerability analysis methodology is tested and demonstrated on real systems.

Security decision-making is a critical task in tackling security threats affecting a system or process. It often involves selecting a suitable resolution action to tackle an identified security risk. To support this selection process, decision-makers should be able to evaluate and compare available decision options. This article introduces a modelling language that can be used to represent the effects of resolution actions on the stakeholders' goals, the crime process, and the attacker. In order to reach this aim, we develop a multidisciplinary framework that combines existing knowledge from the fields of software engineering, crime science, risk assessment, and quantitative decision analysis. The framework is illustrated through an application to a case of identity theft.

The use of multi-terminal HVDC to integrate wind power coming from the North Sea opens de door for a new transmission system model, the DC-Independent System Operator (DC-ISO). DC-ISO will face highly stressed and varying conditions that requires new risk assessment tools to ensure security of supply. This paper proposes a novel risk-based static security assessment methodology named risk-based DC security assessment (RB-DCSA). It combines a probabilistic approach to include uncertainties and a fuzzy inference system to quantify the systemic and individual component risk associated with operational scenarios considering uncertainties. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a multi-terminal HVDC system where the variability of wind speed at the offshore wind is included.

Cyber security is generally thought of as various types of security devices like firewalls, Web Application Firewall (WAF), IDS/IPS, SIEM, DLP etc. to safeguard network, applications and data. But what if, for example, the deployed security solutions have a bug inside? The latest example of this is exposing of a vulnerability in Lenovo notebooks. Lenovo notebooks are shipped with a program named “Superfish-Visual Discovery”, and recently a vulnerability known as Man-in-the-Middle (MITM) has been discovered in this software, so all the security controls installed in the notebooks like antivirus etc. cannot catch it, because it is the default shipped in the software. This is an example as to how important is to take not only networks but also each component of a supply chain into consideration.

Cyber security in the supply chain is a subset of supply chain security and is focused on the management of cyber security requirements for information technology systems, software and networks, which are driven by threats such as cyber-terrorism, malware, data theft and the Advanced Persistent Threat (APT). Typical supply chain cyber security activities for minimizing risks include buying only from trusted vendors, disconnecting critical machines from outside networks, and educating users on the threats and protective measures they can take.

This paper introduces Microsoft’s perspective on supply chain risk and the relationship of such risk to global trade in ICT products. It reviews the considerations that lead governments to express concerns about supply chain security and discusses the implications of some approaches to “solving the problem.” It points out the importance of having national approaches to supply chain risk management that are risk-based, transparent, flexible and reciprocal or standards-based.