Data Injection Attacks in Electricity Markets: Stochastic Robustness

Deregulated electricity markets rely on a two-settlement system consisting of day-ahead and real-time markets, across which electricity price is volatile. In such markets, locational marginal pricing is widely adopted to set electricity prices and manage transmission congestion. Locational marginal prices are vulnerable to measurement errors. Existing studies show that if the adversaries are omniscient, they can design profitable attack strategies without being detected by the residue-based bad data detectors. This paper focuses on a more realistic setting, in which the attackers have only partial and imperfect information due to their limited resources and restricted physical access to the grid. Specifically, the attackers are assumed to have uncertainties about the state of the grid, and the uncertainties are modeled stochastically. Based on this model, this paper offers a framework for characterizing the optimal stochastic guarantees for the effectiveness of the attacks and the associated pricing impacts.