Cross-Release Code Churn Impact on Effort-Aware Software Defect Prediction

Code churn has been successfully used to identify defect inducing changes in software development. Our recent analysis of the cross-release code churn showed that several design metrics exhibit moderate correlation with the number of defects in complex systems. The goal of this paper is to explore whether cross-release code churn can be used to identify critical design change and contribute to prediction of defects for software in evolution. In our case study, we used two types of data from consecutive releases of open-source projects, with and without cross-release code churn, to build standard prediction models. The prediction models were trained on earlier releases and tested on the following ones, evaluating the performance in terms of AUC, GM and effort aware measure Pop. The comparison of their performance was used to answer our research question. The obtained results showed that the prediction model performs better when cross-release code churn is included. Practical implication of this research is to use cross-release code churn to aid in safe planning of next release in software development.