A methodology to improve the assessment of vulnerability on the maritime supply chain of energy

The globalization of trade is due to the transportation possibilities and the standardization (containerization of freight). The dependency of the economy to the sea and to the merchant navy has increase this last decade. This process forms a worldwide maritime network between the different locations of production and consumption. This network, representing between 80 % and 90% of world traffic is a major economic concern, including freight distribution, raw materials or energy. Rodrigue demonstrates[1] the economic dependency of energy is increasing in the industrialized countries (North America, Europe, East Asia). The inter-regional trade of oil was 31 million bbl/day in 2002 and is expected to grow up to 57 bbl/day in 2030 [2]. Most of the international traffic use a maritime way, where may occur disruptions. For example, the Suez crisis (1956-1957) caused a closure of the canal, reducing the throughput capacity of transportation. This disruption cost a 2 millions of barrels lost per day. This article focuses on vulnerability of the energy supply, and proposes a methodology to formalize and assess the vulnerability of the network by taking into account the spatial structure of maritime territories.