A factored evolutionary optimization approach to Bayesian abductive inference for multiple-fault diagnosis

When supporting commercial or defense systems, a perennial challenge is providing effective test and diagnosis strategies to minimize downtime, thereby maximizing system availability. Potentially one of the most effective ways to maximize downtime is to be able to detect and isolate as many faults in a system at one time as possible. This is referred to as the "multiple-fault diagnosis" problem. While several tools have been developed over the years to assist in performing multiple-fault diagnosis, considerable work remains to provide the best diagnosis possible. Recently, a new model for evolutionary computation has been developed called the "Factored Evolutionary Algorithm" (FEA). In this paper, we combine our prior work in deriving diagnostic Bayesian networks from static fault isolation manuals and fault trees with the FEA strategy to perform abductive inference as a way of addressing the multiple-fault diagnosis problem. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach on several networks derived from existing, real-world FIMs.